skip to Main Content

US Election Projections

The race is very close.  The current situation is Biden at 224 and Trump at 213.  The remaining states that could decide the election are Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10). We…

Read more

Italian Referendum

The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk.  The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier.  It is in fact a vote for more centralization. Business activity should be easier since local authorities…

Read more

FX Forecast Alert: GBP

Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning.  Brexit is clearly more likely to happen.  Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…

Read more

High Chance UK will Leave EU

The vote is going to be close.  During the last few days, the markets and the polls showed the Stay Campaign with a slight edge. Today, I closed out most of my 'risk-on' positions with a profit.  It was just…

Read more

Turkish EU Deal is a Game Changer

Just as Turkey seemed to be sliding into escalating violence and chaos, an opportunity arose and President Erdogan agreed to 3 Billion Euro aid package with the EU.  The impetus of the deal was the increasing migration mess in Europe…

Read more

TPP – A Geopolitical Trade Deal for US and Asia

This deal is really about implementing the Asian ‘pivot’ since China is not included purposely.  There are 12 countries that represent 40% of world GDP, with the US and Japan being the key ones. All three NAFTA countries (US, Canada…

Read more

India – Pivot Strategy against China

India and US Pivot against China The recent election of Mr. Modi in India has sped up strategic relations with the US.  In short, India sees benefits in the form of economic cooperation and geopolitical considerations. The geopolitics is not…

Read more

China and US Asian Pivot

South China Sea Tensions Rise In the South China Sea, the geopolitical game is becoming more dangerous.  Tensions are higher since China has been constructing more artificial islands around the Spratly chain, which is oil rich and claimed by numerous…

Read more

Macro Context™: 5 key themes to consider

Today, macro factors, both on the political and economic fronts, will play a decisive role on the future direction of asset prices.  From the political wrangling over the US Debt ceiling to timing and the speed of weaning the US…

Read more