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Turkish Failed Coup and Investment Environment

The failed coup was over before it really started.  It looked like a desperate attempt to overthrow the current AKP government. Unlike coups of the past in Turkey, this one did not have the support of the electorate.  Firstly, about…

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South Africa – A sign of things to come?

The monetary policy committee in South Africa raised rates by 0.25% last week amid fears of the coming US Fed rate rise in December.  This has happened even though growth is expected to be about 1.5% next year and with…

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Turkish Election: In-Depth Analysis

The AK Party (AKP) won parliamentary majority in the elections yesterday.  With 316 seats out of 550 seats, it means that they do not need to form a coalition government and will be able to carry on as before.  The…

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Turkish EU Deal is a Game Changer

Just as Turkey seemed to be sliding into escalating violence and chaos, an opportunity arose and President Erdogan agreed to 3 Billion Euro aid package with the EU.  The impetus of the deal was the increasing migration mess in Europe…

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TPP – A Geopolitical Trade Deal for US and Asia

This deal is really about implementing the Asian ‘pivot’ since China is not included purposely.  There are 12 countries that represent 40% of world GDP, with the US and Japan being the key ones. All three NAFTA countries (US, Canada…

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India – Pivot Strategy against China

India and US Pivot against China The recent election of Mr. Modi in India has sped up strategic relations with the US.  In short, India sees benefits in the form of economic cooperation and geopolitical considerations. The geopolitics is not…

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China and US Asian Pivot

South China Sea Tensions Rise In the South China Sea, the geopolitical game is becoming more dangerous.  Tensions are higher since China has been constructing more artificial islands around the Spratly chain, which is oil rich and claimed by numerous…

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Chinese Turmoil

Panic sets in in China: the following steps were taken: Interest rates were lowered by 25 bps to 4.60 from 4.85. Reserve Requirement Ratio (for big banks) lowered by 50 bps to 18.0 from 18.50. 22 Billion was pumped into…

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Macro Context™: 5 key themes to consider

Today, macro factors, both on the political and economic fronts, will play a decisive role on the future direction of asset prices.  From the political wrangling over the US Debt ceiling to timing and the speed of weaning the US…

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