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Russian Sanctions Analysis

The west led by the US has imposed very tough sanctions on Russia.  However, one of the key sanctions needs further explanation.  Thus, this analysis will focus on the sanctions against the Russian central bank.  In short, this is one…

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New US Middle East Policy

The US policy in the Middle East will become more anti-Iranian over the next couple of months.  The key date here is the Iran Nuclear Deal sign off that Trump will need to make in mid May. Here is a…

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Trade War Forecast

Our view regarding the recent escalation of trade tensions is that we are just at the start of the process and that the recent market rally yesterday is premature. Chinese investment of high-tech US companies has been stymied and regulated…

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North Korean Risks

North Korea dramatically escalated tensions by testing a very powerful bomb today.  Experts are skeptical that it was a hydrogen bomb.  However, it is at least 10x more powerful than anything North Korea had up to this point. The test…

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Turkish Referendum and Dutch Spat

The tensions between Turkey and the Netherlands has heated up with threats of sanctions.  From an investment point of view, it is politically motivated on both sides due to the elections in the Netherlands and the Turkish Referendum. The current…

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Mexican Geo-Political Risk

Having approached the NAFTA issue with very hardball tactics and striking at the sensibilities of the Mexicans with the implementation of the wall along the Mexican border, has increased tensions. The implications of this approach with Mexico are not positive…

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Increasing Risk – US and China

The coming trade friction and quite possibly geopolitical tensions between the US and China should be taken seriously by market players.  In our opinion, this risk has increased. As a prelude for what to expect, look no further than what…

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Chinese – US Policy Uncertainty

The recent phone call to from the president of Taiwan to Trump certainly inflated the Chinese and increased uncertainty in Asia.  In contrast to a Clinton victory, China is going to have a much more difficult time assessing what a…

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Italian Referendum

The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk.  The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier.  It is in fact a vote for more centralization. Business activity should be easier since local authorities…

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Turkish Failed Coup and Investment Environment

The failed coup was over before it really started.  It looked like a desperate attempt to overthrow the current AKP government. Unlike coups of the past in Turkey, this one did not have the support of the electorate.  Firstly, about…

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