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Turkish Referendum and Dutch Spat

The tensions between Turkey and the Netherlands has heated up with threats of sanctions.  From an investment point of view, it is politically motivated on both sides due to the elections in the Netherlands and the Turkish Referendum. The current…

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FX Forecast Alert: GBP

Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning.  Brexit is clearly more likely to happen.  Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…

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High Chance UK will Leave EU

The vote is going to be close.  During the last few days, the markets and the polls showed the Stay Campaign with a slight edge. Today, I closed out most of my 'risk-on' positions with a profit.  It was just…

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Brexit Vote Forecast

Our position on Brexit is that it will be very close but will not happen.  There are several reasons that we think the vote will swing in favor of staying in the European Union. First of all the issue is…

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Anti-Austerity Forces in Portugal and Spain

Anti-austerity forces in Portugal and Spain represent a threat to Germany and European unity. Yesterday, the leftist alliance defeated legislation in parliament that resulted in the end of Prime Minister Coelho after years increased taxes and spending cuts.  On the…

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Syria: Is a Deal in the Works?

There are strong reasons to think so. The recent deal between Turkey and the EU is related towards finding a solution for Syria. The fight for Aleppo could result in a large wave of migrants (500,000 plus) flowing to Turkey…

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Turkish EU Deal is a Game Changer

Just as Turkey seemed to be sliding into escalating violence and chaos, an opportunity arose and President Erdogan agreed to 3 Billion Euro aid package with the EU.  The impetus of the deal was the increasing migration mess in Europe…

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