Outcome of US Elections on US Trade Policy and International Trade
Higher Tariffs Expected under if Trump Wins
The article discusses the differing trade policies of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the context of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. While both candidates exhibit some consensus on certain trade issues, their approaches and priorities differ significantly. Trade is not a major focus of this election compared to previous ones, and there is a shared expectation among both parties for a stable international economic landscape without significant new trade agreements.
Key Points:
- Trade policy plays a subdued role in the 2024 election, unlike in previous years.
- Both candidates have differing views on the use of trade tools; Trump favors aggressive tariffs, while Harris seeks cooperative approaches with allies.
- There is bipartisan support for promoting U.S. security against high-tech challenges, particularly regarding China.
- Clean energy initiatives show cross-party interest, with potential for collaboration despite political differences.
- The future of U.S. trade policy depends on who wins the presidency, with differing visions for international economic engagement.
- As the election approaches, the candidates are likely to be forced to address trade issues more explicitly, especially as global economic uncertainties loom. Voter concerns about inflation, supply chain disruptions, and job losses in certain sectors may prompt both Harris and Trump to present clearer trade agendas that resonate with their bases.
- Kamala Harris’s Approach: Harris is expected to emphasize building alliances with global partners to tackle trade challenges collectively. She may advocate for reforms that support domestic industries while also ensuring that labor standards and environmental protections are prioritized in trade agreements. Harris’s administration could focus on technological advancements and clean energy initiatives, promoting green jobs as a pathway to economic recovery. Her approach is likely to appeal to progressive voters who prioritize sustainability and fair labor practices.
- Donald Trump’s Approach: In contrast, Trump’s strategy will likely revolve around his “America First” doctrine, which prioritizes U.S. economic interests above all else. He may propose reinstating tariffs on countries he deems unfair competitors, particularly China, and advocate for reshoring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Trump’s rhetoric may resonate with working-class voters who feel left behind by globalization. His campaign will likely highlight the need for aggressive measures to protect American jobs and industries from foreign competition. A recent Wall Street Journal article sees Trump raising tariffs to the highest level since the 1930s.
- Potential Areas of Bipartisan Agreement: Despite their differences, there are areas where both candidates may find common ground. The need to address China’s trade practices and its impact on U.S. technology and security is a pressing issue that both parties recognize. Additionally, there may be emerging consensus around supporting domestic innovation and manufacturing, especially in the tech sector.
Conclusion: As both candidates prepare for the debates and campaign events, trade policy is anticipated to emerge as a critical topic. While it may not dominate the headlines, the implications of their differing approaches could shape the future of the U.S. economy and its role in the global market in significant ways. Voters will need to weigh the potential impacts of each candidate’s trade policies on their livelihoods and the broader economic landscape as they head to the polls in November 2024