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US Election Projections

The race is very close.  The current situation is Biden at 224 and Trump at 213.  The remaining states that could decide the election are Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10).

We estimate that Trump will win in Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.  These three states total 51 electoral college votes.  With these states, Trump will have a total of 264, leaving only 6 votes to win re-election.  Thus, a win in either Arizona, Michigan or Wisconsin would put Trump over the top with more than 270 electoral college votes and he would win the election.

A major victory for the Trump camp was Florida.  In short, he appealed to the Cuban and Venezuelan Americans in the Miami area.  This resulted in a much smaller win in Miami for Biden.  Miami and the Dade county area are critical for the Democrats since a big margin of victory is needed here to compensate for votes in the more rural areas of Florida.

At this moment, we project a Trump victory with 280 electoral votes with a win in Michigan (16) added to the 264 votes.  This assumes that Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina are eventually won by Trump.

Update:  Assumptions about Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia were very close and swung towards Biden by small margins.  It is very doubtful that the legal challenges or any recount will change the results.  Arizona looks to be swinging towards Trump and Nevada will probably go to Biden.  Mathematically, this will not be enough.  Thus, Biden will win the presidency.

It is still too early to play the divided government yet.  Our next post will touch upon these assumptions that are in the financial news now.