Why Liberalizing the Yuan Poses a Threat to the Communist Regime China refuses to enter tariff negotiations with the Trump administration due to fears that demands—particularly regarding currency manipulation—could threaten its one-party rule and economic stability. While the U.S. under…
Is Trump's Tariff Policy a threat to US Dollar Reserve Currency Status? The U.S. dollar has dominated global trade finance and reserve currency status for seven decades, supported by factors like liquidity, widespread use, and trust in U.S. economic and…
Unwind of Yen Funded Carry Trade will Continue The recent unwinding of the yen-funded carry trade, prompted by the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, has significantly impacted global markets. Analysts estimate that around $200 billion of this carry trade…
Short-term Divergence in Monetary Policy Expected The US economy is currently the best positioned of the major economies. In contrast, Europe has the Ukraine-Russian war plus week demand in China. Unlike other areas, European data on inflation is mixed puts…
The west led by the US has imposed very tough sanctions on Russia. However, one of the key sanctions needs further explanation. Thus, this analysis will focus on the sanctions against the Russian central bank. In short, this is one…
Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning. Brexit is clearly more likely to happen. Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…
The vote is going to be close. During the last few days, the markets and the polls showed the Stay Campaign with a slight edge. Today, I closed out most of my 'risk-on' positions with a profit. It was just…
Our position on Brexit is that it will be very close but will not happen. There are several reasons that we think the vote will swing in favor of staying in the European Union. First of all the issue is…
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