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The Presidential Debate between Harris and Trump

Will Trump or Harris Prevail: what are the implications?

The first debate between Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is set for September 10, 2024. This pivotal encounter could impact the close race ahead of the November 5 election as early voting begins soon after. Harris aims to leverage her prosecutorial background to challenge Trump’s controversial record, while Trump’s team plans to focus on immigration and economic issues. Both candidates are expected to engage in personal attacks and discuss significant topics like abortion and consumer prices.

Key Points

Debate Date & Significance: First debate scheduled for September 10, crucial for undecided voters especially in key swing states.

  • Harris’ Strategy: Plans to highlight abortion rights and contrast her record with Trump’s. Harris is likely to emphasize the economic recovery and rebuilding efforts under the Biden administration. She will point to the significant job creation and reduction in inflation as key accomplishments, framing these as essential to ensuring economic stability and growth for the middle class. She will look at bring up the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the effect on jobs and development in certain sectors. In addition, she needs to articulate how they are handling the current economic challenges like inflation and slowing economy.
  • Trump’s Focus: Expected to emphasize immigration issues and criticize Harris on economic matters. Most probably he will cite economic statistics with the goal of making the Biden/Harris team look very bad on inflation and economic growth. Trump will certainly criticize the Biden administration’s handling of the economy, framing it as a failure that has led to increased inflation and stagnant wages. He will likely position himself as a champion of economic strength and deregulation. Expect Trump to cite individual examples of companies loosing jobs and then either dwonsizing or even closing to connect with voters. Finally, he may outline plans for tax cuts, deregulation and tariffs against other countries.
  • Campaign Dynamics: Both candidates are tied in several battleground states; small shifts in public opinion could alter the election outcome. There are a lot of swing voters in these states who are looking to see who Kamala Harris is and what she stands for. This is not the same for Donald Trump who the public knows well.
  • Preparation: Harris has been rehearsing extensively, while Trump relies on informal strategies for debate readiness. For Harris, she hopes Trump fall into a trap of attacking women and this will play to her favour. Trump is getting the advise of a former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who had a hostile exchange with Harris in a Democratic presidential debate in 2019.

Campaign Strategies

As the debate approaches, both campaigns are ramping up their strategies to maximize impact. Harris’s team is focusing on refining her messaging around key issues, particularly women’s rights and health care. They believe that framing these topics effectively will resonate with a significant portion of the electorate, especially women and younger voters who prioritize these issues.

On the other hand, Trump’s campaign is concentrating on energizing his base. They plan to utilize Trump’s charismatic speaking style to draw sharp contrasts with Harris, often using humor and personal anecdotes to connect with voters. The Trump team is also preparing for potential interruptions and confrontational moments, knowing that Trump thrives in such scenarios.

Both candidates are working to engage their supporters through various channels. Harris is utilizing grassroots organizing and digital platforms to mobilize voters, aiming to increase turnout in key demographics. Her campaign is hosting town halls and community events to connect directly with voters, emphasizing her commitment to issues that matter to them.

Trump’s campaign is leveraging social media and traditional rallies to keep his base energized. His team understands the importance of turnout and is focusing on motivating supporters by highlighting his previous achievements and painting a picture of what a second term would entail.

Anticipated Topics

During the debate, several hot-button issues are expected to dominate the conversation:

Abortion Rights: Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, this issue remains critical for many voters. Harris will likely advocate for reproductive rights while Trump may focus on appealing to conservative values.

Economic Concerns: With rising inflation and economic uncertainty, both candidates will address how their policies will impact everyday Americans. Harris is expected to discuss her plans for economic recovery, while Trump will certainly criticize the current administration’s handling of the economy often using statistics.

Immigration: Trump has consistently emphasized stricter immigration policies, which he will likely reiterate during the debate. Harris may counter by highlighting the need for comprehensive immigration reform that balances security with compassion.

Climate Change: As environmental issues gain urgency among voters, Harris may promote her administration’s initiatives on climate action, while Trump could question the economic implications of aggressive climate policies.

Market and Geopolitical Implications

The upcoming debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is poised to be a defining moment in the 2024 presidential race. With both candidates aware of the stakes involved, the discourse promises to be intense, revealing not only their political ideologies but also their strategies for winning over an electorate divided on critical issues. As early voting approaches, the outcomes of this debate could significantly influence voter sentiment and ultimately determine who will occupy the White House in January 2025.

This has great implications for the market. In fact, numerous global macro funds are getting into cash to trade this event. In terms of policy statements from the indivdual candidates this could favour one industry over another for example.

Geopolitically, this outcome of the debate and more importantly the election in November would likely see two versions of the US. If Harris wins, US engagement with allies will continue with many of the same advisors currently in the White House. However, if Trump wins, a more isolationalist US is expected on the world state. In that case, the Ukrainian-Russia was will swing towards Russia’s favor since Trump will reduce funding for Ukraine. This will lead to negotation that means Ukranian land for temporary peace.

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