New US Middle East Policy
The US policy in the Middle East will become more anti-Iranian over the next couple of months. The key date here is the Iran Nuclear Deal sign off that Trump will need to make in mid May. Here is a…
US and Middle East – Policy & Risks
Changes are at hand regarding US policy in the Middle East. In this article, I will argue the US pullback is misguided due to a narrow definition of risks and benefits. While it is true that US interests have been…
What will Syria look like – the political solution?
Our last post highlighted our belief in a Syrian Deal in the works and our main reasons behind this thesis. In this post, we look at what shape a Syrian political solution will take politically and why. The focus will…
Syrian Deal in the Works
Now that Putin has achieved his goals in Syria, expect a Syrian Deal to be put on the fast track. Putin’s first goal was popularity back home and it looks like he was very successful here. Secondly, he was able…
Russian Geopolitics in Mediterranean
Russian geopolitics in the Mediterranean are wider than Syria. In our previous article, Syrian End Game, we discussed the reasons behind the recent Russian intervention in Syria. Essentially, the Russians need to protect their only naval base in the Mediterranean…
Syrian End Game
What does Russian involvement mean for Syria? Most Probable Reason: To obtain a place at the negotiating table on Syria. Putin will prop up Assad to improve his hand. The No-Fly Zone would have led to regime change which Russia…