Oil Price Geopolitical Risk Premium Deflates Geopolitical risk plays a vital role in influencing the price of crude oil in the global market. The relationship between geopolitical risk and crude oil prices is complex and multifaceted. Understanding this connection is…
Regional Geo-Politics and Economic Interests One of the casualties of the escalation in Gaza has been the recent India-Middle East- Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) was announced during the G20 meeting in India. The first step to this plan was the…
Escalating Risk Ends in Unity Government The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has once again escalated, resulting in a high risk of an all-out war. The recent Hamas attack has caught many by surprise, leading to increased tensions in…
The US policy in the Middle East will become more anti-Iranian over the next couple of months. The key date here is the Iran Nuclear Deal sign off that Trump will need to make in mid May. Here is a…
Changes are at hand regarding US policy in the Middle East. In this article, I will argue the US pullback is misguided due to a narrow definition of risks and benefits. While it is true that US interests have been…
Our last post highlighted our belief in a Syrian Deal in the works and our main reasons behind this thesis. In this post, we look at what shape a Syrian political solution will take politically and why. The focus will…
Now that Putin has achieved his goals in Syria, expect a Syrian Deal to be put on the fast track. Putin’s first goal was popularity back home and it looks like he was very successful here. Secondly, he was able…
Russian geopolitics in the Mediterranean are wider than Syria. In our previous article, Syrian End Game, we discussed the reasons behind the recent Russian intervention in Syria. Essentially, the Russians need to protect their only naval base in the Mediterranean…
What does Russian involvement mean for Syria? Most Probable Reason: To obtain a place at the negotiating table on Syria. Putin will prop up Assad to improve his hand. The No-Fly Zone would have led to regime change which Russia…