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Italian Referendum

The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk.  The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier.  It is in fact a vote for more centralization. Business activity should be easier since local authorities have blocked many initiatives.

In short, this would make decision making in Italy more decisive.  However, it is also seen as a vote for discontent.  If a ‘No’ vote wins, the Five Star Movement would gain and this could be a risk for the Euro.  For other political parties in Europe, this could be seen as vote for free trade and if Renzi looses other politicians in Europe expounding this view might think twice.

The danger is the Five Star Movement which has become close to the UK Independence Party of Nigel Farage.  It could lead to greater instability in Europe.  Compounding this is the mess with the Banking System.