Trade Tensions but Full-Decoupling Unlikely The long-running U.S.-China trade war escalated under Trump I and continued under Biden. In Trump II, it has escalated. However, a full economic decoupling still seems unlikely despite major tensions. The trade war includes tariffs,…
Is China's Economic Model Sustainable? China’s economic model is more vulnerable than many think since China’s growth depends heavily on exports, subsidies, cheap credit, financial repression, and currency manipulation—while weak household consumption, falling investment efficiency, and rising debt make the…
False Promise of Middle Power Alliances Mark Carney’s call for middle powers to build strategic autonomy and uphold a rules-based international order is insightful but ultimately limited. It says the idea is attractive in theory, but real geopolitical and economic…
North Korea-Russia Ties Make China Wary Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea was aimed at strengthening China’s influence over Pyongyang while trying to prevent North Korea’s growing nuclear, military, and Russian ties from undermining Beijing’s interests. Analysts say China wants…
The European Union Plan to Catch up on Tech The European Union has proposed a broad plan to strengthen its domestic tech supply chains and reduce dependence on US and Asian firms in areas like semiconductors, AI, and cloud computing…
Chinese Economic Coersion on the EU China has warned it will retaliate if the EU adopts a proposal to ban Huawei and ZTE equipment across the bloc. Beijing’s mission to the EU urged removal of language labeling Chinese vendors as…
Geopolitical Implications of Meeting First let's begin with the agenda of the Trump-Xi meeeting below: •Taiwan Issue and US-China Relations • Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and China's Potential Role • Trade Tensions and Economic Cooperation • AI Technology and Semiconductor…
China has Underestimated Europe's Pushback China underestimates Europe’s willingness and ability to push back. Chinese commentators often caricature Europe as weak and US-led, overlooking growing European concerns about economic dependence, security (notably over Ukraine), and unfair trade/practice issues. Recent incidents—chipmaker…
Risks and Opportunities for China and Russia The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has created strategic opportunities for Russia and China to weaken U.S. influence, learn from U.S. military operations, and deepen ties with Iran. Moscow and Beijing benefit if the…
Trump-Xi Meeting Postponed due Conflict in Middle East U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly asked China to delay Xi Jinping’s planned visit amid the widening Iran war, casting doubt on the high-profile diplomatic exchange meant to stabilize U.S.-China ties and extend…
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