Market Forecast – Trade War Significant Risk
We maintain the view that this is just the beginning of a trade war between the US and China. Even if it does not actually happen, the rhetoric will get…
New US Middle East Policy
The US policy in the Middle East will become more anti-Iranian over the next couple of months. The key date here is the Iran Nuclear Deal sign off that Trump…
Trade War Forecast
Our view regarding the recent escalation of trade tensions is that we are just at the start of the process and that the recent market rally yesterday is premature. Chinese…
Monetary Policy Forecast
Our monetary policy forecast stays the same. In short, we believe that the FED will raise more times and to a greater degree than the consensus three rate rises forecast.…
North Korean Risks
North Korea dramatically escalated tensions by testing a very powerful bomb today. Experts are skeptical that it was a hydrogen bomb. However, it is at least 10x more powerful than…
FED Rate and Balance Sheet Forecast
Our forecast has been for the FED to raise rates in June. Although the economic data has been weaker as of late, we are sticking by our forecast. This is…