Trade Tensions but Full-Decoupling Unlikely The long-running U.S.-China trade war escalated under Trump I and continued under Biden. In Trump II, it has escalated. However, a full economic decoupling still seems unlikely despite major tensions. The trade war includes tariffs,…
Is China's Economic Model Sustainable? China’s economic model is more vulnerable than many think since China’s growth depends heavily on exports, subsidies, cheap credit, financial repression, and currency manipulation—while weak household consumption, falling investment efficiency, and rising debt make the…
EU Political Backlash against Spain's Migrant Crisis The sudden influx of migrants into Spain’s Ceuta enclave sparked alarm across the EU, but also exposed political divisions. While the immediate border crisis eased, many EU countries reacted harshly toward Spain, with…
Why the Yen Matters to the United States A weakening Japanese yen matters to the United States: Japan and the U.S. are tightly linked through trade and financial markets, so a sharp yen decline can affect American borrowing costs, exporters,…
Geopolitical Play Against China and Russia in Middle East the Trump administration’s proposed 30-year civil nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia is not just about energy, but a strategic tool to push Saudi Arabia toward normalizing relations with Israel through…
False Promise of Middle Power Alliances Mark Carney’s call for middle powers to build strategic autonomy and uphold a rules-based international order is insightful but ultimately limited. It says the idea is attractive in theory, but real geopolitical and economic…
New Tariff Threat on Canada is Negotiation Strategy Trump announced 50% tariffs on many Canadian imports using Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, a law apparently used by a president for the first time. The move targets goods such…
Trump Orbit Alliances in Latin America Expanding Latin America is seeing a shift toward Trump-aligned leaders who favor free-market policies, hardline security, and cooperation with the U.S. on immigration and counternarcotics. There are several new or rising leaders across the…
EU Reliant on US LNG More Europe rapidly reduced its reliance on Russian pipeline gas after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but it has increasingly depended on US LNG instead. Analysts warn this shift may undermine EU energy diversification, affordability,…
US-Iran War: Escalate or Negotiate A major escalation between the U.S. and Iran, with U.S. airstrikes hitting multiple sites in Iran and Iran retaliating against U.S. military facilities across the region. The conflict has raised fears of a wider war…
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