Short-term Divergence in Monetary Policy Expected The US economy is currently the best positioned of the major economies. In contrast, Europe has the Ukraine-Russian war plus week demand in China. Unlike other areas, European data on inflation is mixed puts…
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Jerome Powell FMOC Raises Rates by 0.25 The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell lifted interest rates by 0.25 moving the federal funds rate to 5.5% from 5.25%. This was widely anticipated…
The recent policy move by the US Federal Reserve to reduce rates by 0.25 was expected by the market, thus not much surprise. What was interesting about this move was the statement. In short, the FED thinks things are going…
Our monetary policy forecast stays the same. In short, we believe that the FED will raise more times and to a greater degree than the consensus three rate rises forecast. Thus, equity investors should take precautions since we see four…
Our forecast has been for the FED to raise rates in June. Although the economic data has been weaker as of late, we are sticking by our forecast. This is in-line with our overall view for 2017 that the FED…
The market now sees 3 rate hikes instead of 2 for for 2017. We have had this position for some time in our previous forecasts. Regarding the pace of rate hikes, it depends on economic growth and inflation. Surveys currently…
The FED meeting today is important for setting up future rate moves. I would pay less attention to the data and more attention to the tone of the language. Regarding the risk of a hike today, it is close to…
Our forecast for future rate hikes by the FED in 2017 depend on inflationary pressures arising from the new economic policies of Trump. In general, inflation seems to be picking up, or we should say inflationary expectations are picking up.…
Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations have risen quite a bit as can be seen clearly…