Downside Surprise on CPI Inflation Data The consensus forecast was for 7.0% for the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for the UK. However, inflation unexpectedly fell from 6.8% to 6.7%. It was previously at 7.4%. This was mainly a result of…
Short-term Divergence in Monetary Policy Expected The US economy is currently the best positioned of the major economies. In contrast, Europe has the Ukraine-Russian war plus week demand in China. Unlike other areas, European data on inflation is mixed puts…
The decision today is either 0.25 or a 0.50 interest rate rise. Arguments can be made for both scenarios today. If the BOE raises by 0.25 this will be seen as not doing enough but expectations are for the rate…
The Bank of England is facing a difficult decision today. Expectations are for a hike of 0.25 to 0.50. Given the nature of the mortagage market in the UK where fixed rates beyond 5 years is not common, means that…
Rates in the UK were cut to lowest point ever over Brexit concerns. In short, the increased uncertainty over the move to leave the EU has impacted confidence and business investment. This has affected consumer spending, the real estate market,…
The labour market is very tight with unemployment at the medium term trend of 5.5%, this is down from over 8% a few years ago. Thus, the job market is back to normal and probably tightening. This would be a…