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High Chance UK will Leave EU

The vote is going to be close.  During the last few days, the markets and the polls showed the Stay Campaign with a slight edge.

Today, I closed out most of my ‘risk-on’ positions with a profit.  It was just too risky to keep the positions with such a close vote expected.

Here is why I now believe that the edge has swung towards the Leave Campaign. The reasons are given below:

  1. Recent results in Newcastle where slightly for staying in the EU, where the expectations were for a higher margin to stay in.
  2. Turn out in Scotland is lower than expected and this the most pro-stay in area of the UK.
  3. In the cosmopolitan areas, we would expect the Stay-in camp to win.  But outside of these areas the Leave camp will have the edge.
  4. Outside of London, a majority of the UK has not benefited economically.
  5. Most of the low to middle class has not benefited.

I now a that the LEAVE campaign will win by a slight margin.

Expect the the currency to drop dramatically to around 1.20 GBP per US Dollar or less.  The Japanese Yen and US Dollar will gain.

Markets will drop tomorrow, especially risky assets.