Oil Spike after Gulf Gas Fields Struck Iran and Qatar accused Israel of striking the giant shared South Pars/North Dome offshore natural gas field. Then Iran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial city, causing fires and “extensive damage.” While most of…
Iranian Regime Weakened: Can it survive? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has struggled to maintain its deterrent reputation amid ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. Despite continuing attacks on Gulf infrastructure and some resilience, the IRGC has suffered operational…
Iran War and Implications on Oil Production and Prices The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and LNG supply passes. Major Middle Eastern…
Chinese Response on Iran Strikes Seen as Weak The U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have upended global geopolitics and complicated an upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Beijing. China's official response has been measured—strongly worded but restrained—reflecting…
Iran Facing Capitulation or Confrontation The US has essentially given Iran two choices. The first, accept ending enrichment of uranium, get rid of long-range ballistic missle program, end support for regional Iranian proxy groups and treat Iranian citizens better. In…
Overview of US-Iranian Positions and Tensions Tensions between the United States and Iran have sharply increased after hostile rhetoric, US naval deployments to the Arabian Sea, and warnings from President Trump that “time is running out” for Iran to return…
Gulf States Nervous about Iran Blowback US President Donald Trump told Iran he did not want war and, after pressure from four Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt), held off ordering strikes amid a deadly crackdown on Iranian…
Implications of Israeli Attack on Qatar and Gaza Peace Plan Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a "strategic mutual defence" pact in Riyadh that says an attack on one will be treated as an attack on both. The deal — announced…
Israeli Strike on Qatar Threatens Israeli-Arab Normalization Israeli strike on Qatar would mark a dangerous new phase in a long-running cycle of conflict and shaky diplomacy across the Middle East. It risks undermining fragile normalisation gains, empowering hardliners and proxies,…
Oil Market and the Deflation of the Geopolitical Risk Premium This Goldman Sachs prediction was a worst case scanario. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a strategic mistake by Iran. For three reasons, it needs the money…
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