Israel and Iran Tensions being Played Down This should be seen as a warning to show that Israel can strike back at a time and place at its choosing. At the same time the Iranians have blamed drones for the…
US and UK Consider Response to Houthi Attack The recent attack launched from Yemen by the Houthi group has once again brought the spotlight on the ongoing conflict in the region and its implications for global security. This article aims…
What are the prospects for reduced geopolitical risk in 2024? The key drivers of geopolitical risk are the Russian-Ukrainian War, Israeli-Hamas Conflict and friction between the US and China. We see a mixed picture on the drivers of geopolitical risk…
Oil Price Geopolitical Risk Premium Deflates Geopolitical risk plays a vital role in influencing the price of crude oil in the global market. The relationship between geopolitical risk and crude oil prices is complex and multifaceted. Understanding this connection is…
Regional Geo-Politics and Economic Interests One of the casualties of the escalation in Gaza has been the recent India-Middle East- Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) was announced during the G20 meeting in India. The first step to this plan was the…
Escalating Risk Ends in Unity Government The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has once again escalated, resulting in a high risk of an all-out war. The recent Hamas attack has caught many by surprise, leading to increased tensions in…
The US policy in the Middle East will become more anti-Iranian over the next couple of months. The key date here is the Iran Nuclear Deal sign off that Trump will need to make in mid May. Here is a…
Changes are at hand regarding US policy in the Middle East. In this article, I will argue the US pullback is misguided due to a narrow definition of risks and benefits. While it is true that US interests have been…
Our last post highlighted our belief in a Syrian Deal in the works and our main reasons behind this thesis. In this post, we look at what shape a Syrian political solution will take politically and why. The focus will…
Now that Putin has achieved his goals in Syria, expect a Syrian Deal to be put on the fast track. Putin’s first goal was popularity back home and it looks like he was very successful here. Secondly, he was able…
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