Middle East: Syrian Uncertainty
HTS will need to Pursue a Pragmatic Approach in Syria
The text discusses the evolving political landscape in Syria following the actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. HTS has attempted to rebrand itself as a viable alternative to the Assad regime, distancing from its past affiliations with al-Qaeda. The recent collapse of Syrian military control in various regions has led to power shifts among different factions, including rebel groups and Kurdish forces. The future of Syria remains uncertain as various local and international powers vie for influence.
The HTS rebels will have to negiate with the international community since more than $250 Billion USD is needed to rebuild the country. Therefore, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) needs to present a moderate face to the west in order to remain popular and keep power in Syria. In addition, the Kurdish SDF forces control about 70% of Syrian oil and most of its agricultural production. Thus, they will play a key part in any negotiations. However, outside players such as Turkey have used their proxy group SNA to try an grab more land from the Kurdish SDF in Northeast Syria in order to strenthen their negotiating position. Finally, Israel has hit more than 350 targets and has destroyed Syrian naval assets since they see uncertainty as a risk. Thus, they don’t want former Syrian weapons falling into the wrong hands in the future. Israel also took additional land near the strategic Golan Heights area for the same reasons. Below is a summary of the key points:
- HTS Leadership: Abu Mohammed al-Jolani aims to position HTS as a pragmatic alternative to the Assad regime.
- Regional Power Shifts: The collapse of Syrian military control has empowered various rebel and Kurdish factions.
- HTS Rebranding: HTS evolved from its previous identity as Jabhat al-Nusra, distancing itself from al-Qaeda affiliations.
- Ongoing Conflicts: Internal divisions among opposition groups may persist despite potential changes in leadership.
- International Involvement: Regional powers like Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia plus great powers like the US will continue to influence Syria’s political future. Prior supporting powers of the Assad regime will have their power diminished, especially Iran. However, expect Russia to potetially come back in some way mainly in terms of keeping its naval and airbase on the coast.
Geopolitical Insight
We expect Turkey to continue to support its proxy, SNA, to take more territory from Kurdish SDF forces. The US supports the Kurdish SDF forces since they hold about 10,000 ISIS prisoners and are instrumental in keeping this group from resurging in the current uncertain environment. Additionally, the US has put pressure on the SDF leaders to distance themselves from the YPG an offshoot of the PKK terrorist organization. This has proven difficult to do for SDF leaders since they fear being assassinated by the radical YPG group. They are more pragmatic but cannot escape the YPG influence. Thus, Turkey fearing a potential semi-independent Kurdish region in Northern Syria to go along with the current semi-independent Kurdish region in Northern Iraq will pose risks in its own Kurdish region seeking autonomy.
Thus, expect continued in-fighting between Turkey’s proxy SNA and Kurdish SDF forces. The US has warned Turkey not to cross the Euprates River under Biden, but policy could change under Trump in January. The Kurdish SDF position would be significantly weakened without US support if Trump changed policy.
As mentioned earlier, HTS will need to ally with the Kurdish SDF forces since oil revenue and agricultural production are mainly concentrated in that part of Syria. It should be noted that Israel also is closer to the Kurdish SDF and is weary of the Sunni HTS and the Turkish backed SNA group. In short, Turkey through its SNA proxy is part of the Muslim Brotherhood. This is the same as Hamas, Qatar and the former Egyptian Morsi government. Thus, the demise of Hamas and Morsi in Egypt weakened this polical ideology. However, if Turkey can revive it through HTS and SNA it will be the big winner in Syria. Qatar would then provide the funds for reconstruction with Turkish construction companies gaining many contracts.
Thus, from an Israeli perpective a Sunni-led government in Syria that has the political ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood is a threat since they will actively support Hamas. This would also be a threat to Egypt and the Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE plus Jordan. Therefore, we see a regional alignment of players in Syria as follows: Turkey and Qatar on one side against Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and UAE on the other side. In addition, expect some Iranian influence in the future, especially since this represents a loss of more than $30 Billion USD for the Iranian regime. In addition, Iran has now lost access on resupply routes to Hezbollah and of all the regional players it has lost the most after the Assad regime fell.
At the great power level, the US can play a role but that will depend on the new Trump administration. First of all they will have influence through the Kurdish SDF which controls most of the oil and agricultural rescources. Second, they can have influence through either Turkey or Israel as both regional powers will pitch their interests to Trump.
For Russia, this is a big loss especially if it cannot keep its access to its two military bases (naval and airport) in Syria. This will be significant in terms of power projection from the Russian side into Africa and the broader area. The HTS leadership intially taken a pragmatic approach thus no immediate danger to Russia loosing the bases.
However, the west (EU, US and international institutions) will be reluctant to provide aid with Russia in control of two military bases on the coast. Thus, we don’t see the HTS pramatic policy here as realistic. For HTS, it would have to get rid of the Russian bases to access western aid. It could be using this as a fallback strategy where if western aid does not materialize then it keeps the Russian bases and gets mainly Chinese aid. However, I am not sure China is ready to pump that much money into Syria.
In the end, negotiations to fill the power vacuum will be complex and difficult due to divisions among domestic Syrian players and the conflicting goals of major regional and global players.
