A Peace Plan for Gaza

Gaza Plan and Broader Considerations

The Biden administration is nearing a cease-fire deal aimed at halting major fighting in Gaza, facilitating the release of Israeli hostages, and increasing humanitarian aid for Palestinians. While a framework has been agreed upon, officials warn that finalizing the details may take time. The deal seeks to implement a three-phase resolution to the conflict, with mediation from the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt playing crucial roles.

To put pressure on Hamas, Qatar threatened to expel Hamas from Doha. Egypt in a bid to make the plan more ameniable to Israel supported the US plan to not allow any additional tunnels between Gaza and Egypt and to stop smuggling to cut off supplies to Hamas.

Finally, in an attempt to contain a possible war with Hezbollah and prevent a broader war, Lebanon has signalled that Hezbollah forces will move north of the Litani River if the Gaza plan goes ahead. The US is mediating through a group close to Hezbollah.

Iran is unlikely to retaliate with Blinken in the Middle East and if the Gaza Plan is accepted the retaliation is likely to be muted.

Key Points

• A cease-fire deal may soon be reached to end fighting in Gaza and release Israeli hostages.
• The agreement involves a three-phase resolution: a six-week cease-fire, hostage releases, and withdrawal of troops.
• US officials indicate that both sides have shown willingness to negotiate interim governance in Gaza.