Assad Flees as Syrian Rebels enter Damascus
Fall of Assad Regime Leaves Syria with Power Vaccum
The imminent capture of Damascus by rebel forces signals the potential fall of the Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad, leading to a contested political process among various rebel factions. The rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group that used to be an al-Qaeda affiliate. In addition, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other groups are rapidly advancing, taking control of major cities and military installations as Assad’s forces suffer from low morale and internal strife. The political landscape is shifting, with foreign actors like Turkey, Iran, and Russia trying to influence the outcome. However, the future remains uncertain, with possible factionalism and instability anticipated during the transitional period.
Why did the regime crumble so quickly? Several factors came together that opened up an opportunity for the rebels to advance. First, the weakening of key backers to Assad, specifically Hezbollah. Israel wiped out the leadership and recent incursions into Lebanon significantly weekened this group. Second, Russia is lacking manpower thus its presence in Syria has been weakened. Third, Israel recently bombed several Syrian and Iranian military targets further weakening the Assad regime.
Geopolitically, the fall of Assad and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon had basically dealt a serious blow to Iran. The highway from Iran to the Mediterrean Sea now is broken. The rebels led by HTS are enemies of Iran, thus we see this as a major loss or the Iranian regime. In addition, this is real setback for Russia. For Russia, it risks losing the key naval and airbase that it currently has in Syria. However, they might be able to strike some sort of deal.
The big winner is Turkey in the recent developments. It is backer of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). However, the mainly Kurdish group called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is backed by the US mainly to keep a lid on a resurgence of the Islamic state. They also control the north-east part of Syria and importantly the oil fields. Turkey has stated emphatically that it will not work with this group. The question is weather groups backed by Turkey will attack the SDF to weaken them prior to negotiations.
For Turkey and semi-independent Kurdish group in Iran and the possibility of a semi-independent group in Syria has implications for its own Kurdish population. It sees this as a threat, thus don’t expect any cooperation here. This might risk fragmentation of Syria if groups start fighting one another.
Key Points
- Capture of Damascus: Rebel forces have entered suburbs of Damascus, indicating a significant shift in the power dynamics of the Syrian Civil War.
- Fall of Assad: The collapse of the Assad regime is imminent, with mass defections and territorial losses.
- Competing Factions: Various rebel groups, including the FSA and HTS, are vying for control, leading to potential instability and conflict among them.
- Political Transition: A political process guided by U.N. Resolution 2254 is expected, though factionalism may hinder a smooth transition.
- Foreign Influence: Countries like Turkey will be involved in shaping Syria’s postwar governance, complicating the political landscape and governance structure, since their interests will not be the same as other countries like Saudi Arabia/UAE and Russia for example.
Factionalism and Power Struggles
As the rebel forces gain ground, the lack of a unified command could lead to infighting among various factions. The Free Syrian Army, while one of the more recognized groups, is not the only player in the field. Islamist groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) also have significant influence and control over certain regions. This fragmentation could result in clashes between different groups vying for power, complicating efforts to establish a stable governance structure post-Assad. Thus, Turkish supported groups could attack the SDF as mentioned earlier. In addition, expect Saudi Arabia and UAE to seek influence among the Sunni rebels. This will further complicate things since this will put them up against Turkish backed groups.
Humanitarian Crisis
The ongoing conflict has already led to a catastrophic humanitarian situation, with millions displaced and in need of assistance. As urban centers like Damascus are contested, the civilian population faces increased risks of violence, food shortages, and limited access to healthcare. Aid organizations are struggling to provide support amid the chaos, and the potential for further deterioration of living conditions is high as fighting intensifies.
Regional Implications
The fall of Assad may have broader implications for the Middle East. Neighboring countries, particularly Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, may experience an influx of refugees, if things go sour and fragmentation occurs, exacerbating existing tensions and resource strains. Additionally, Iran’s support for Assad has been a cornerstone of its regional strategy; a regime change could alter the balance of power in the region, leading to increased instability as Iran reassesses its position.
International Response
The international community remains divided on how to respond to the evolving situation in Syria. While some countries advocate for supporting the opposition and facilitating a transition to a democratic governance model, others may prefer to maintain ties with remaining regime elements to preserve stability. The involvement of major powers such as Russia, which has backed Assad, and Turkey, which supports certain rebel factions, creates a complex web of interests that could further complicate resolution efforts.
Future Scenarios
Unified Rebel Governance: In an optimistic scenario, rebel groups could unite under a common banner, leading to a stable transitional government that addresses the needs of the populace and fosters international support.
Continued Fragmentation: Alternatively, ongoing factional disputes could lead to a prolonged period of violence and instability, with various armed groups controlling different territories, resulting in a situation reminiscent of Libya post-Gaddafi.
Foreign Intervention: Increased foreign intervention by regional powers or international coalitions could either stabilize the situation or exacerbate tensions, depending on their objectives and methods.
Negotiated Settlement: A diplomatic solution facilitated by international actors could pave the way for a peaceful transition and reconstruction efforts, though this would require significant compromises from all parties involved.
Conclusion
The coming weeks and months are crucial for Syria as it stands on the brink of significant change. The potential fall of Assad presents both opportunities for a new beginning and challenges that could lead to further chaos. As various factions vie for influence and control, the international community must navigate a delicate balance of supporting peace while preventing further deterioration of an already dire humanitarian situation. The outcome will depend heavily on the ability of Syrian actors to unite and form a coherent vision for the country’s future amidst external pressures and internal divisions.
Our view is that this will be a difficult task since you have competing interests among the different rebel groups and outside powers. However, the internal enviroment may help here as many Syrians want to go back to normality.
