What Next for Iran after the Death of President Ebrahim Raisi?
Foreign Policy Likely the Same, Domestic Uncertainty
While Raisi served as president, his power was limited by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic. However, Raisi’s passing has created a void in power in Iran. According to Section 131 of the Iranian constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is set to take over. It is unlikely that Mokhber will have significant influence or aspire to succeed Raisi.
Instead, he will be replaced by a successor through an election process within fifty days of Raisi’s death being announced, in accordance with the constitution. However, this forces the regime to hold another presidential election, a task it likely would have preferred to avoid. We can expect very low voter turnout as was the case when President Raisi was elected among the handpicked candidates. Dissatisfaction with the regime on the economic front and adventures abroad are certain to keep turnout low, further questioning the legitemacy of the regime.
The Guardian Council, responsible for vetting candidates based on their loyalty to the Islamic Republic’s principles, believed Raisi would lead Iran into the future, possibly succeeding Khamenei. Thus the choice of the next president after Raisi will be similiar: a regime insider with strong religious beliefs and ultra-conservative views. In addition, he would also most likely be weak so he could be controlled, in other words a loyal servent like Raisi.
Summary:
Western officials are closely monitoring Iran during a period of increased volatility as the country prepares to choose a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash. Despite not expecting major foreign-policy shifts, there are concerns about potential reactions to threats and political upheaval. The upcoming election campaign could lead to a more assertive posture from Iran in the region. Iran’s ultimate authority lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is likely to maintain the current trajectory of deepening ties with China and Russia, supporting regional militias, and pursuing a nuclear program.
- Western officials are monitoring Iran due to increased volatility following President Raisi’s death. As mentioned, this will result in domestic uncertainty on choosing someone who will succeed Khamenei in the furure. Thus, expect a domestic power struggle.
- There are concerns about potential reactions to threats and political upheaval.
- Iran’s upcoming election campaign could lead to a more assertive posture in the region. Thus, the elections will be closely monitored by the international community to see how the power dynamics within the country evolve in light of Raisi’s death.
- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is expected to maintain current policies with deepening ties to China and Russia, supporting regional militias, and pursuing a nuclear program.
- Talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal have collapsed, with concerns about Iran edging closer to developing a nuclear weapon. The collapse of talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal has raised worries about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the potential for escalation in the region.
