Oil Market Dynamics of a Weaker OPEC The UAE announced it will leave OPEC on May 1 amid a global energy crisis driven by the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Experts say the move reflects long‑running…
Risks and Opportunities for China and Russia The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has created strategic opportunities for Russia and China to weaken U.S. influence, learn from U.S. military operations, and deepen ties with Iran. Moscow and Beijing benefit if the…
Possible US-Iran Deal but Complications Exist Recent high-level talks between the United States and Iran show a fragile opening for peace, but deep mistrust, recent violence, and uncompromising demands have blocked a deal. Sustaining the current cease-fire, building confidence measures,…
Trump Pushes Israel on Lebanese Ceasefire to Wrap up US-Iran Deal Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire pushed by U.S. President Donald Trump, taking effect at midnight. The truce is intended to create space for renewed mediation and…
Ceasefire: Nuclear Enrichment and Strait of Hormuz The two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran is fragile and leaves many core disputes unresolved. Key issues—Iran’s nuclear program, Lebanon/Hezbollah, demands for compensation, the risk of terrorism and proxy attacks,…
Trump to Rethink NATO Commitment President Trump publicly questioned whether the United States should “rethink” its NATO commitment after European allies refused to join a U.S.-led military push against Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His frustration stems from…
Economic Implications of Iran War The Iran war’s immediate human toll is severe, but its economic effects vary widely. The heaviest costs fall on the region—Israel, Gulf states and Iran—while the global impact depends mainly on disruptions to energy and…
Oil Spike after Gulf Gas Fields Struck Iran and Qatar accused Israel of striking the giant shared South Pars/North Dome offshore natural gas field. Then Iran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial city, causing fires and “extensive damage.” While most of…
Iranian Regime Weakened: Can it survive? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has struggled to maintain its deterrent reputation amid ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. Despite continuing attacks on Gulf infrastructure and some resilience, the IRGC has suffered operational…
Iran War and Implications on Oil Production and Prices The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and LNG supply passes. Major Middle Eastern…
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