Brexit Vote Forecast
Our position on Brexit is that it will be very close but will not happen. There are several reasons that we think the vote will swing in favor of staying in the European Union. First of all the issue is…
Oil Prices and Doha Meeting
The Doha Meeting will impact oil prices for 2016. Many analyst are confused at what will transpire at this meeting. There seems to be a weak view building that the meeting will produce some type of agreement but lots…
FED 2016 Rate Forecast
Our forecast for FED rate hikes in 2016 was 2 hikes for 2016. We strongly doubted the then prevailing market view of 3 to 4 hikes. It is now clear that the maximum number of hikes will be 2 at…
Oil Forecast – March 2016
Oil Forecast An oil price recovery is the key to a commodity rebound since oil is priced in dollars and it is an input into commodity production. The continuation of economic stimulus programs in the EU, Japan and China bodes…
US and Middle East – Policy & Risks
Changes are at hand regarding US policy in the Middle East. In this article, I will argue the US pullback is misguided due to a narrow definition of risks and benefits. While it is true that US interests have been…
What will Syria look like – the political solution?
Our last post highlighted our belief in a Syrian Deal in the works and our main reasons behind this thesis. In this post, we look at what shape a Syrian political solution will take politically and why. The focus will…
Syrian Deal in the Works
Now that Putin has achieved his goals in Syria, expect a Syrian Deal to be put on the fast track. Putin’s first goal was popularity back home and it looks like he was very successful here. Secondly, he was able…
December Rate Hike – then what?
The December rate hike is now clearly going to happen. The Fed has been spelling this out in its messages to the market. Expectations are for a 0.25 to 0.5 hike. In all likelihood it will be 0.25. The big…
South Africa – A sign of things to come?
The monetary policy committee in South Africa raised rates by 0.25% last week amid fears of the coming US Fed rate rise in December. This has happened even though growth is expected to be about 1.5% next year and with…
Russian Geopolitics in Mediterranean
Russian geopolitics in the Mediterranean are wider than Syria. In our previous article, Syrian End Game, we discussed the reasons behind the recent Russian intervention in Syria. Essentially, the Russians need to protect their only naval base in the Mediterranean…
