Expect a Tougher Stance by the EU on China Trade The European Union and China are moving toward a possible trade confrontation as Europe’s trade deficit with China reaches about €1 billion per day. The EU is increasingly alarmed by…
Risk Premium up on European Bonds European bond-market turbulence, especially in France, is increasing concerns about Eurozone fiscal stability and prompting markets to reassess expectations for ECB interest-rate policy. This is weighing on the euro, with the 1.1100 EUR/USD level…
US Military and Gulf Counties Keep Oil Flowing The U.S. sanctions and naval blockade are placing severe economic pressure on Iran, restricting oil revenues, foreign currency, imports, and access to global finance. However, global energy markets have adapted to disruptions…
Geopolitical: Brazilian Election Brazil’s October 4 election presents competing foreign-policy visions: Lula favors a more autonomous, multilaeral Brazil that helps shape global rules, while Flávio Bolsonaro would prioritize closer ties with Donald Trump to secure trade, investment, and security benefits…
Oil Price: US-Iran Truce Hopes vs Houthi Attacks Oil prices declined as markets weighed potential U.S.-Iran peace talks against renewed attacks and supply risks in the Middle East, particularly concerns over renewed Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Arabia. Brent remained supported…
Greenlandic Independence Seen as Main Risk Greenland’s strategic location makes it vital to U.S. and NATO Arctic defense, particularly for monitoring Russian submarines, protecting North Atlantic supply lines, and supporting missile-warning systems. Although independence is a long-term political goal in…
US Prosecuters Target Huawei U.S. prosecutors opened a criminal trial accusing Huawei of stealing American trade secrets, violating sanctions, and misleading banks to expand its global telecommunications business. Huawei’s defense denied the allegations, arguing that prosecutors were misrepresenting ordinary business…
Trust in the US Dollar is Main Risk The US dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency because of its liquidity, institutional credibility, and central role in global trade and finance. However, Donald Trump’s use of tariffs and financial sanctions…
Trade War Damage is Asymmetric, but both Sides Hurt Canada is showing strong public and political support for resisting President Donald Trump’s tariffs, while opposition in the United States is growing because of fears about higher prices, economic disruption, and…
The Mecca Agreement is More Signalling at this Stage Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have signed the Mecca Joint Defence Pact, pledging to treat an attack on one member as an attack on all. The agreement signals growing regional efforts…
Get the Free
Macro Newsletter!
Macro Insights
