The coming trade friction and quite possibly geopolitical tensions between the US and China should be taken seriously by market players. In our opinion, this risk has increased. As a prelude for what to expect, look no further than what…
Our forecast for future rate hikes by the FED in 2017 depend on inflationary pressures arising from the new economic policies of Trump. In general, inflation seems to be picking up, or we should say inflationary expectations are picking up…
The recent phone call to from the president of Taiwan to Trump certainly inflated the Chinese and increased uncertainty in Asia. In contrast to a Clinton victory, China is going to have a much more difficult time assessing what a…
The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk. The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier. It is in fact a vote for more centralization. Business activity should be easier since local authorities…
We have taken a speculative position on the OPEC meeting in November. There are arguments for both a deal and also a no-deal scenario. I will briefly discuss both scenarios, then provide what our view is and why. First, the…
Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations have risen quite a bit as can be seen clearly…
The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED. This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly unlikely for two reasons - the data was not conclusive…
The Bank of Japan has key decisions to make tomorrow. In fact, this meeting is seen as more important than the FED meeting by the market since the range of policy options that could be undertaken by the BOJ is…
Market volatility has gone up over the last few days. In fact it was under 12 during the past 5 days and recently jumped to over 18. Currently, it went down to the 16 range, loosing more than 6%. The…
Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data. The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September. Thus, nothing will occur in…
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