Possible Risk Outcomes against Iran Middle Eastern mediators are trying to revive stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran as military tensions rise. The U.S. is deploying additional naval and Marine forces to the region, while Israel is reportedly…
Limited Options Against Houthis Saudi Arabia faces a difficult strategic dilemma after intensified Houthi attacks in October 2026. Riyadh must balance military retaliation with the risks of widening the conflict, involving the United States, Israel, Iran-backed groups in Iraq, and…
US Military and Gulf Counties Keep Oil Flowing The U.S. sanctions and naval blockade are placing severe economic pressure on Iran, restricting oil revenues, foreign currency, imports, and access to global finance. However, global energy markets have adapted to disruptions…
US-Iran War: Escalate or Negotiate A major escalation between the U.S. and Iran, with U.S. airstrikes hitting multiple sites in Iran and Iran retaliating against U.S. military facilities across the region. The conflict has raised fears of a wider war…
Post-Ayatollah Regime: More Flexible? U.S. officials are betting Iran could be persuaded to change its long-standing hostility toward the United States in exchange for sanctions relief and economic benefits. But history suggests this is difficult: past attempts, including the 2015…
US Iran MOU Opens Strait of Hormuz The proposed U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding that would immediately pause hostilities, ease sanctions, reopen shipping access in the Persian Gulf, and begin negotiations for a final nuclear agreement within 60 days. It includes…
Deal to Open Strait of Hormuz is Close The U.S. and Iran are close to a preliminary agreement that could extend the cease-fire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and set up later talks on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief…
The US and Israel Did Have a Iran Plan A New York Times article notes that U.S. and Israeli planners briefly considered installing hard-line former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a pliable leader of Iran after early 2026 strikes killed top…
Possible US-Iran Deal but Complications Exist Recent high-level talks between the United States and Iran show a fragile opening for peace, but deep mistrust, recent violence, and uncompromising demands have blocked a deal. Sustaining the current cease-fire, building confidence measures,…
Ceasefire: Nuclear Enrichment and Strait of Hormuz The two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran is fragile and leaves many core disputes unresolved. Key issues—Iran’s nuclear program, Lebanon/Hezbollah, demands for compensation, the risk of terrorism and proxy attacks,…
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