Possible US-Iran Deal but Complications Exist Recent high-level talks between the United States and Iran show a fragile opening for peace, but deep mistrust, recent violence, and uncompromising demands have blocked a deal. Sustaining the current cease-fire, building confidence measures,…
Ceasefire: Nuclear Enrichment and Strait of Hormuz The two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran is fragile and leaves many core disputes unresolved. Key issues—Iran’s nuclear program, Lebanon/Hezbollah, demands for compensation, the risk of terrorism and proxy attacks,…
Iranian Regime Weakened: Can it survive? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has struggled to maintain its deterrent reputation amid ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. Despite continuing attacks on Gulf infrastructure and some resilience, the IRGC has suffered operational…
Chinese Response on Iran Strikes Seen as Weak The U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have upended global geopolitics and complicated an upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Beijing. China's official response has been measured—strongly worded but restrained—reflecting…
Foreign Policy Likely the Same, Domestic Uncertainty While Raisi served as president, his power was limited by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic. However, Raisi's passing has created a void in power…
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