Oil Stock Valuations Face High Uncertainty Our recent articles on oil prices and oil stocks raised several risks to the oil price and broader economy. Given where we are in the global economic cycle, the article argued a negative view…
Surging Oil Prices and Analysis of Oil Stocks Oil Prices and Oil Stocks have been a topic of intense discussion and analysis in recent times. The volatility in the energy sector and the invasion of Ukraine have had a significant…
Bank of Japan Keeps Rates Low The BOJ sees domestic demand as weak and wage growth is behind inflation, the the BOJ still thinks stimulus is needed probably until the second half next year. The focus of Governor Ueda will…
Downside Surprise on CPI Inflation Data The consensus forecast was for 7.0% for the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for the UK. However, inflation unexpectedly fell from 6.8% to 6.7%. It was previously at 7.4%. This was mainly a result of…
How do oil prices factor into inflation? Oil prices play a significant role in the global economy, with its impact reaching far beyond the energy sector. Fluctuations in oil prices can have a profound effect on inflation rates, influencing consumer…
Post G20 Geopolitical Implications The geopolical implations post the G20 meeting in India are important. Our analyis highlights several important areas to monitor. Inclusion of the African Union (AU) and the proposal for a middle east transport corrider to connect…
ECB Expected to Raise Rates Our view is with the market, with a majority (66%) in this case that sees the ECB raising rates. Economists are split evenly on this. After 9 consecutive rate hikes, rates have gone up and…
ARM IPO and AI Boom The ARM IPO (Initial Public Offering) is currently valued at $54.5 and how this plays out will have implications beyond this IPO. This will potentially affect the AI Boom (or Hype). Softbank, the Japanese investment…
Short-term Divergence in Monetary Policy Expected The US economy is currently the best positioned of the major economies. In contrast, Europe has the Ukraine-Russian war plus week demand in China. Unlike other areas, European data on inflation is mixed puts…
Our outlook is that that the combination of over-priced markets, AI-hype, and geo-political risk will mean a correction sometime in September or October. This is is based on the recent escalation of geo-political risk between China and the US on…
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