How to Interpret Putin and New Nuclear Doctrine Lower Threshold

Nuclear Doctrine Change Implies More Agressive Russia ahead of Negotiations

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced significant changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use. This announcement coincides with escalating tensions due to Western support for Ukraine, leading to a more aggressive stance from Russia. The new doctrine outlines conditions for using nuclear weapons in response to perceived threats, including attacks from non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers. The changes reflect a strategic shift in response to the ongoing conflict and are intended to deter Western involvement in Ukraine. Key points are listed below:

• Putin’s decree lowers the threshold for using nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks to include language such as ‘theat to Russian soveignty’.
• The new doctrine allows for nuclear responses to threats against Russia’s sovereignty, even from non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers. This means that an attack against Ukraine and non-nuclar powers in NATO is a consideration.
• The timing follows Biden’s approval of longer-range missiles for Ukraine, indicating a strategic response from Russia.
• Analysts express concern over the potential escalation of conflict, but note that Trump returning to the U.S. presidency and Russia gaining an edge in the war in Ukraine are not likely to see Russia use nuclear weapons. Russia is not on its back foot.
• The White House noted no significant changes in Russia’s nuclear posture despite the new doctrine. Thus the US has not changed its nuclear policy. This can be seen as positive.

Strategic and Financial Market Implications

The revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine has significant implications for global security and the balance of power. By lowering the threshold for nuclear engagement, Russia aims to instill fear and uncertainty among its adversaries, particularly NATO and Western allies supporting Ukraine. This strategy could lead to a more cautious approach from Western nations, potentially deterring further military support for Ukraine or influencing diplomatic negotiations in a future peace agreement.

The financial markets were initially worried but see this as a bargaining tactic by Russia in future negotiations. Thus, for the moment we advice to ignore this. However, several western embassies in Kiev, Ukraine were emptied on an expected major missle strike by Russia.