Our forecast for future rate hikes by the FED in 2017 depend on inflationary pressures arising from the new economic policies of Trump. In general, inflation seems to be picking up, or we should say inflationary expectations are picking up…
Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations have risen quite a bit as can be seen clearly…
The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED. This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly unlikely for two reasons - the data was not conclusive…
The Bank of Japan has key decisions to make tomorrow. In fact, this meeting is seen as more important than the FED meeting by the market since the range of policy options that could be undertaken by the BOJ is…
Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data. The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September. Thus, nothing will occur in…
Rates in the UK were cut to lowest point ever over Brexit concerns. In short, the increased uncertainty over the move to leave the EU has impacted confidence and business investment. This has affected consumer spending, the real estate market,…
New stimulus was announced but waiting to do possibly more at the next meeting in September. In short, they decided to assess their approach, so a cautious approach. The move today is also a recognition that policy might be at…
Our forecast for FED rate hikes in 2016 was 2 hikes for 2016. We strongly doubted the then prevailing market view of 3 to 4 hikes. It is now clear that the maximum number of hikes will be 2 at…
The December rate hike is now clearly going to happen. The Fed has been spelling this out in its messages to the market. Expectations are for a 0.25 to 0.5 hike. In all likelihood it will be 0.25. The big…
The monetary policy committee in South Africa raised rates by 0.25% last week amid fears of the coming US Fed rate rise in December. This has happened even though growth is expected to be about 1.5% next year and with…
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