The market now sees 3 rate hikes instead of 2 for for 2017. We have had this position for some time in our previous forecasts. Regarding the pace of rate hikes, it depends on economic growth and inflation. Surveys currently…
The FED meeting today is important for setting up future rate moves. I would pay less attention to the data and more attention to the tone of the language. Regarding the risk of a hike today, it is close to…
Our forecast for future rate hikes by the FED in 2017 depend on inflationary pressures arising from the new economic policies of Trump. In general, inflation seems to be picking up, or we should say inflationary expectations are picking up…
Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations have risen quite a bit as can be seen clearly…
The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED. This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly unlikely for two reasons - the data was not conclusive…
The Bank of Japan has key decisions to make tomorrow. In fact, this meeting is seen as more important than the FED meeting by the market since the range of policy options that could be undertaken by the BOJ is…
Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data. The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September. Thus, nothing will occur in…
Rates in the UK were cut to lowest point ever over Brexit concerns. In short, the increased uncertainty over the move to leave the EU has impacted confidence and business investment. This has affected consumer spending, the real estate market,…
New stimulus was announced but waiting to do possibly more at the next meeting in September. In short, they decided to assess their approach, so a cautious approach. The move today is also a recognition that policy might be at…
Our forecast for FED rate hikes in 2016 was 2 hikes for 2016. We strongly doubted the then prevailing market view of 3 to 4 hikes. It is now clear that the maximum number of hikes will be 2 at…
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