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US FED Decision

The recent policy move by the US Federal Reserve to reduce rates by 0.25 was expected by the market, thus not much surprise.

What was interesting about this move was the statement.  In short, the FED thinks things are going in the right direction and the US economy is still growing.  While this may be true when looking at the economic statistics, the market thinks otherwise.

In addition, the FED sees the trade war with China as subsiding and less concern for Brexit, mostly the hard-Brexit worst-case scenario having less probability.  Although they may be right on Brexit, I see the situation with China as not resolved and unlikely to get resolved.  At most, only a trade war truce will be declared.

The market, specifically the bond market, still sees a recession underway when looking at the yield curve which is now slopping downwards the further out you go (10 year rates below short-term rates).  In addition, the HYG, an ETF representing high-yield corporate debt or junk bonds, has falling.  Thus the market is concerned about economic growth and potential credit-quality problems in the future.

In short, the FED statement is at odds with the bond market.  The stock market has rallied off of the news but I think this is temporary and lacking long-term conviction.