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Monetary Policy Forecast

Monetary Policy Forecast

Our monetary policy forecast stays the same.  In short, we believe that the FED will raise more times and to a greater degree than the consensus three rate rises forecast.

Thus, equity investors should take precautions since we see four (4) rate rises with perhaps a greater incremental rate rise than expectations.  Some of the factors behind our forecast are:

  1. Full employment and beyond for the US.
  2. Clues in the commodity and oil markets that we are nearly at the end of the cycle.
  3. Fiscal stimulus in the form of Trump infrastructure plan will hasten the pressure of the FED rate rises.