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Bank Of Japan Yen Notes And Coins

Bank of Japan – hold steady for now

New stimulus was announced but waiting to do possibly more at the next meeting in September.  In short, they decided to assess their approach, so a cautious approach. The move today is also a recognition that policy might be at…

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Compass On Hundred Dollar Background

FED 2016 Rate Forecast

Our forecast for FED rate hikes in 2016 was 2 hikes for 2016.  We strongly doubted the then prevailing market view of 3 to 4 hikes.  It is now clear that the maximum number of hikes will be 2 at…

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Very Tightly Cropped Image Of A Dollar Bill With Selected Focus On The Federal Reserve Official Symbol

December Rate Hike – then what?

The December rate hike is now clearly going to happen.  The Fed has been spelling this out in its messages to the market.  Expectations are for a 0.25 to 0.5 hike.  In all likelihood it will be 0.25. The big…

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South African Reserve Bank Hundred Rand Note

South Africa – A sign of things to come?

The monetary policy committee in South Africa raised rates by 0.25% last week amid fears of the coming US Fed rate rise in December.  This has happened even though growth is expected to be about 1.5% next year and with…

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Compass On Hundred Dollar Background

December FED Hike – what now?

Mixed signals keep on coming from the FED regarding a rate hike.  More economists and market participants are now convinced of a December rate hike.  Chances of a hike did go up thanks to the recent strong jobs report.  However,…

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Bank Of England Note With Plastic House Models

UK BOE keeps rates on hold – Future?

The labour market is very tight with unemployment at the medium term trend of 5.5%, this is down from over 8% a few years ago.  Thus, the job market is back to normal and probably tightening.  This would be a…

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Euro Coin With Technical Analysis Background

ECB – Weak Data and German Slowdown

Germany is experiencing a slowdown in exports thanks to weakness in emerging markets, especially China which accounts for 6.5% of German exports.  The slowdown in China could be more than is currently in the news and that will affect German…

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Bank Of Japan Yen Notes

Japan – BOJ Stimulus is it Yes or No?

The bad news is that growth is slowing for domestic and external reasons.  The good news (if you can call it that) is that Japan is not the only large economy caught in a deflationary spiral. Japan grew at 4.5%…

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United States Federal Reserve Emblem On Note

FED – Diminished Chance of 2015 Rate Hike

The expected September rate hike did not happen as we predicted in August. This was due mostly to turmoil in the financial markets as a result of the Chinese slowdown. In addition, the inflation numbers were weak. Going forward, we…

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