ECB September Rate Forecast
ECB Expected to Raise Rates Our view is with the market, with a majority (66%) in this case that sees the ECB raising rates. Economists are split evenly on this. After 9 consecutive rate hikes, rates have gone up and…
Monetary Policy Outlook
Short-term Divergence in Monetary Policy Expected The US economy is currently the best positioned of the major economies. In contrast, Europe has the Ukraine-Russian war plus week demand in China. Unlike other areas, European data on inflation is mixed puts…
August CPI Forecast
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most important economic indicators used to measure inflation. It provides valuable insights into the changes in prices of goods and services over a period of time. The CPI is released monthly…
Bank of England to Raise Rates to Combat Inflation
The decision today is either 0.25 or a 0.50 interest rate rise. Arguments can be made for both scenarios today. If the BOE raises by 0.25 this will be seen as not doing enough but expectations are for the rate…
BOJ Signals Flexibility on Yield Curve Control
Bank of Japan Moves Closer to Normalization with Loosening of Yield Curve Control What is Yield Curve Control The central bank basically buys Japanese government bonds whenever the 10-year yields risk going beyond the 0.5% allowable range or below zero. …
ECB Outlook
ECB Battles Lingering Inflation with Hold or Hike says Lagarde ECB President Lagarde states that rates will not decrease but with either hold or hike to battle stubborn inflation. The mandate of the ECB is price stability. Facing tight job…
FED Outlook
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Jerome Powell FMOC Raises Rates by 0.25 The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell lifted interest rates by 0.25 moving the federal funds rate to 5.5% from 5.25%. This was widely anticipated…
Bank of England Rate Rise Uncertainty
The Bank of England is facing a difficult decision today. Expectations are for a hike of 0.25 to 0.50. Given the nature of the mortagage market in the UK where fixed rates beyond 5 years is not common, means that…
Turkish Rate Hike Expectations
The Turkish Central Bank will need to hike interest rates today. The question is by how much. Currently, expectations from the market are very broad reflecting the high certaintly of the decision. That is a result of restrictive factors such…
Turkish New Economic Plan Post-Election
The Turkish economy has been facing a multitude of challenges in the post-election period. The lira has been performing poorly, inflation rates are high, and regional disparities still exist. However, the new finance minister, Mehmet Simsek, has come forward with…
