Japan – BOJ Stimulus is it Yes or No?
The bad news is that growth is slowing for domestic and external reasons. The good news (if you can call it that) is that Japan is not the only large economy caught in a deflationary spiral. Japan grew at 4.5%…
Brazil – Policy Challenges and Very Negative Outlook
The economy has declined by 2.5 to 3 % of GDP according to most estimates. Next year will also see a decline of over 1% of GDP. The slowdown in China has impacted Brazil and this will continue into the…
FED – Diminished Chance of 2015 Rate Hike
The expected September rate hike did not happen as we predicted in August. This was due mostly to turmoil in the financial markets as a result of the Chinese slowdown. In addition, the inflation numbers were weak. Going forward, we…
Chinese Turmoil
Panic sets in in China: the following steps were taken: Interest rates were lowered by 25 bps to 4.60 from 4.85. Reserve Requirement Ratio (for big banks) lowered by 50 bps to 18.0 from 18.50. 22 Billion was pumped into…
FED Rate Rise – What Now?
For the FED to raise rates in September, growth in the US economy would need to clearly show up in the economic data. Inflation numbers were not really there given the strong US Dollar (imports are cheaper) and low oil…
Macro Context™: 5 key themes to consider
Today, macro factors, both on the political and economic fronts, will play a decisive role on the future direction of asset prices. From the political wrangling over the US Debt ceiling to timing and the speed of weaning the US…
Global Macro Alerts™ – US Budget Deadline Analysis
Expect lots of volatility as politics once again predominates. With both sides drawing lines in the sand and refusing to budge a federal shutdown seems increasing likely. The U.S. senate voted along party lines to extend financing till November 15th,…
Central Bank View™ – FED Decision and Global Markets
The FED (US Federal Reserve) decision to keep monetary stimulus at the same level had been initially positive for the markets, especially emerging markets. However, subsequent news that the decision was close and expectations that the stimulus might be reduced…