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US Federal Reserve System Emblem

Monetary Policy Forecast

Our monetary policy forecast stays the same.  In short, we believe that the FED will raise more times and to a greater degree than the consensus three rate rises forecast. Thus, equity investors should take precautions since we see four…

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Federal Reserve Building

FED Rate and Balance Sheet Forecast

Our forecast has been for the FED to raise rates in June.  Although the economic data has been weaker as of late, we are sticking by our forecast. This is in-line with our overall view for 2017 that the FED…

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Federal Reserve Bank Note Emblem

March Rate Hike and Fed Policy

The market now sees 3 rate hikes instead of 2 for for 2017.  We have had this position for some time in our previous forecasts. Regarding the pace of rate hikes, it depends on economic growth and inflation.  Surveys currently…

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Bald Eagle On Federal Reserve Building

FED Meeting – What to look for?

The FED meeting today is important for setting up future rate moves.  I would pay less attention to the data and more attention to the tone of the language. Regarding the risk of a hike today, it is close to…

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Close Up Look Of Markets Various Bills

FED Rate Forecast for 2017

Our forecast for future rate hikes by the FED in 2017 depend on inflationary pressures arising from the new economic policies of Trump.  In general, inflation seems to be picking up, or we should say inflationary expectations are picking up.…

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US Federal Reserve System Emblem

FED Rate Forecast

Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative.   The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations have risen quite a bit as can be seen clearly…

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Federal Reserve System Emblem

FED Rate Forecast & FMOC Minutes

The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED.  This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly unlikely for two reasons - the data was not conclusive…

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Bank Of Japan Yen Notes And Coins

Bank of Japan – Key Decision Ahead

The Bank of Japan has key decisions to make tomorrow.  In fact, this meeting is seen as more important than the FED meeting by the market since the range of policy options that could be undertaken by the BOJ is…

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United States Federal Reserve Emblem On Note

FED Outlook 2016

Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data.   The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September.  Thus, nothing will occur in…

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Bank Of England Twenty Pound Note

BOE Rate Decision

Rates in the UK were cut to lowest point ever over Brexit concerns.   In short, the increased uncertainty over the move to leave the EU has impacted confidence and business investment. This has affected consumer spending, the real estate market,…

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