The US and Israel Did Have a Iran Plan A New York Times article notes that U.S. and Israeli planners briefly considered installing hard-line former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a pliable leader of Iran after early 2026 strikes killed top…
US Demands Economic and Political Change in Cuba C.I.A. Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba amid a severe energy crisis — days after Havana said fuel for power plants was exhausted — to deliver President Trump’s demand that Havana make economic…
Geopolitical Implications of Meeting First let's begin with the agenda of the Trump-Xi meeeting below: •Taiwan Issue and US-China Relations • Iran, Strait of Hormuz, and China's Potential Role • Trade Tensions and Economic Cooperation • AI Technology and Semiconductor…
Future of US Gulf Strategic Relationship The recent Gulf war between Iran and U.S./Israeli-aligned forces exposed deep strategic strain: Gulf states feel vulnerable despite long U.S. security guarantees, Iran’s missile-and-drone attacks disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and regional…
China has Underestimated Europe's Pushback China underestimates Europe’s willingness and ability to push back. Chinese commentators often caricature Europe as weak and US-led, overlooking growing European concerns about economic dependence, security (notably over Ukraine), and unfair trade/practice issues. Recent incidents—chipmaker…
Oil Market Dynamics of a Weaker OPEC The UAE announced it will leave OPEC on May 1 amid a global energy crisis driven by the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Experts say the move reflects long‑running…
USMCA Overview and Key Issues at Stake The 2026 joint review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) has shifted from a routine assessment into a high‑stakes negotiation driven by U.S. protectionist measures under the Trump administration, which has used tariffs…
Risks and Opportunities for China and Russia The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has created strategic opportunities for Russia and China to weaken U.S. influence, learn from U.S. military operations, and deepen ties with Iran. Moscow and Beijing benefit if the…
Possible US-Iran Deal but Complications Exist Recent high-level talks between the United States and Iran show a fragile opening for peace, but deep mistrust, recent violence, and uncompromising demands have blocked a deal. Sustaining the current cease-fire, building confidence measures,…
Trump Pushes Israel on Lebanese Ceasefire to Wrap up US-Iran Deal Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire pushed by U.S. President Donald Trump, taking effect at midnight. The truce is intended to create space for renewed mediation and…
Get the Free
Macro Newsletter!
Macro Insights
