ASEAN: Caught betweeen US and China Six ASEAN countries — Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — face steep U.S. tariffs starting August 1 due to accusations of goods being transshipped from China to evade tariffs. Vietnam secured a…
Fiscal and Geopolitical Implications of Big Beautiful Bill The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (BBB), a Republican tax-and-spending plan passed in early July 2025, is a complex and fiscally irresponsible legislation (unsustainable budget deficits of 6.7% of GDP) that extends deficit-financed…
Vietnam Trade Agreement: Model for Future Deals The U.S. and Vietnam reached a trade deal reducing tariffs on Vietnamese imports from 46% to 20%, with Vietnam agreeing to impose a 40% duty on goods transshipped from other countries, mainly targeting…
Oil Market and the Deflation of the Geopolitical Risk Premium This Goldman Sachs prediction was a worst case scanario. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a strategic mistake by Iran. For three reasons, it needs the money…
A Weakened Iran Strategically Accepts a Ceasefire President Trump thanked Iran for giving "early notice" of its missile attack on Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, calling the Iranian retaliation "very weak" and expressing a desire to avoid war with Iran…
Increased Probability of US Strike on Iranian Fordow Nuclear Site President Trump declared "total control of skies" over Iran and called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" amid growing signs the U.S. might join Israel's bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities. The…
Is Israel Seeking to Destroy Iranian Regime? Israel's recent military actions against Iran's nuclear program, marking a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Following nearly 20 months of conflict after October 7, 2023, Israel has moved from defensive operations against…
AI Race, Rare Earths Minerials and Chip Export Restrictions Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei downplayed the impact of US export restrictions on China's chip sector, expressing confidence in domestic alternatives like chip packaging stacking and AI software breakthroughs. He acknowledged Huawei…
US-China Strategic Competition to Shape Trade Talks U.S.-China trade talks resumed in London as the world's two largest economies aim to resolve their trade differences following a recent call between their leaders. Key officials from both sides, including U.S. Treasury…
New Global Order and US China Geopolitical Risk The Trump administration adopted an "America First" technology strategy focused on achieving unilateral technological dominance, departing from previous multilateral cooperation. This approach emphasized aggressive competition, especially against China, and prioritized U.S. national…
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