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Turkish Failed Coup and Investment Environment

The failed coup was over before it really started.  It looked like a desperate attempt to overthrow the current AKP government. Unlike coups of the past in Turkey, this one did not have the support of the electorate.  Firstly, about…

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FX Forecast Alert: GBP

Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning.  Brexit is clearly more likely to happen.  Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…

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Oil Prices and Doha Meeting

The Doha Meeting will impact oil prices for 2016.   Many analyst are confused at what will transpire at this meeting. There seems to be a weak view building that the meeting will produce some type of agreement but lots…

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US and Middle East – Policy & Risks

Changes are at hand regarding US policy in the Middle East.  In this article, I will argue the US pullback is misguided due to a narrow definition of risks and benefits. While it is true that US interests have been…

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Syrian Deal in the Works

Now that Putin has achieved his goals in Syria, expect a Syrian Deal to be put on the fast track. Putin’s first goal was popularity back home and it looks like he was very successful here.  Secondly, he was able…

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Russian Geopolitics in Mediterranean

Russian geopolitics in the Mediterranean are wider than Syria. In our previous article, Syrian End Game, we discussed the reasons behind the recent Russian intervention in Syria.  Essentially, the Russians need to protect their only naval base in the Mediterranean…

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India – Pivot Strategy against China

India and US Pivot against China The recent election of Mr. Modi in India has sped up strategic relations with the US.  In short, India sees benefits in the form of economic cooperation and geopolitical considerations. The geopolitics is not…

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China and US Asian Pivot

South China Sea Tensions Rise In the South China Sea, the geopolitical game is becoming more dangerous.  Tensions are higher since China has been constructing more artificial islands around the Spratly chain, which is oil rich and claimed by numerous…

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Syrian End Game

What does Russian involvement mean for Syria? Most Probable Reason:  To obtain a place at the negotiating table on Syria. Putin will prop up Assad to improve his hand.  The No-Fly Zone would have led to regime change which Russia…

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