The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED. This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly unlikely for two reasons - the data was not conclusive…
Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data. The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September. Thus, nothing will occur in…
Our forecast for FED rate hikes in 2016 was 2 hikes for 2016. We strongly doubted the then prevailing market view of 3 to 4 hikes. It is now clear that the maximum number of hikes will be 2 at…
The December rate hike is now clearly going to happen. The Fed has been spelling this out in its messages to the market. Expectations are for a 0.25 to 0.5 hike. In all likelihood it will be 0.25. The big…
The monetary policy committee in South Africa raised rates by 0.25% last week amid fears of the coming US Fed rate rise in December. This has happened even though growth is expected to be about 1.5% next year and with…
Mixed signals keep on coming from the FED regarding a rate hike. More economists and market participants are now convinced of a December rate hike. Chances of a hike did go up thanks to the recent strong jobs report. However,…
The expected September rate hike did not happen as we predicted in August. This was due mostly to turmoil in the financial markets as a result of the Chinese slowdown. In addition, the inflation numbers were weak. Going forward, we…
For the FED to raise rates in September, growth in the US economy would need to clearly show up in the economic data. Inflation numbers were not really there given the strong US Dollar (imports are cheaper) and low oil…
An article yesterday, (FT: ‘Fed probes for leaks ahead of policy news,’ September 24, 2013) brought up a possible serious allegation that the FMOC decision on monetary policy last week might have been leaked by someone in the media. The…
The FED (US Federal Reserve) decision to keep monetary stimulus at the same level had been initially positive for the markets, especially emerging markets. However, subsequent news that the decision was close and expectations that the stimulus might be reduced…