FED Rate Rise – What Now?
For the FED to raise rates in September, growth in the US economy would need to clearly show up in the economic data. Inflation numbers were not really there given the strong US Dollar (imports are cheaper) and low oil…
Global Macro Context™ – Greece the Euro and Politics
The Syriza government in Greece is at a critical juncture. Having failed to deliver on campaign promises thus far, it has instead focused on several small symbolic victories. The visit to Russia to meet with Putin and making a recent…
Turkey – Political Headwinds
Turkey faces strong headwinds in the coming year both on the political and economic front. The corruption probe that began yesterday is the latest in a series of political battles for power. Next year is an important election year for…
Macro Context™: 5 key themes to consider
Today, macro factors, both on the political and economic fronts, will play a decisive role on the future direction of asset prices. From the political wrangling over the US Debt ceiling to timing and the speed of weaning the US…
Global Macro Alerts™ – GREK: why the price divergence with Greek banks?
Positive news on the Greek investment climate has come in on several fronts – investment, political and economic. Most of the articles in the news today were positive. However the price of GREK has dropped by over 3% today. In…
Global Macro Alerts™: Macro Trading Review – Oct 2nd 2013
In the past few days, several ETFs (India - EPI, Turkey - TUR and Indonesia - IDX) were suggested as investment ideas to take advantage of the political situation over the budget crisis in the U.S. Additionally, the recent arrests…
Global Macro Alerts™ – US Budget Deadline Analysis
Expect lots of volatility as politics once again predominates. With both sides drawing lines in the sand and refusing to budge a federal shutdown seems increasing likely. The U.S. senate voted along party lines to extend financing till November 15th,…
Global Macro Alerts™ – Greek Political & Economic Outlook
The recent arrest of the ultra-right Golden Dawn party leaders was sparked when a member of Golden Dawn murdered an anti-fascist rapper. The group had previously enjoyed impunity partly as a result of being the third most powerful party. Recent…
Emerging Market ETFs – Option Investability Index™
To capture major and minor market moves in emerging markets, I frequently use ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) that meet certain standards regarding volume, open interest and liquidity measures (such as bid-ask). Thus, I only trade emerging market ETFs that meet…
FED Media Leak and High-Frequency Hedge Funds?
An article yesterday, (FT: ‘Fed probes for leaks ahead of policy news,’ September 24, 2013) brought up a possible serious allegation that the FMOC decision on monetary policy last week might have been leaked by someone in the media. The…
