FED Rate Forecast
Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations have risen quite a bit as can be seen clearly…
FED Rate Forecast & FMOC Minutes
The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED. This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly unlikely for two reasons - the data was not conclusive…
Bank of Japan – Key Decision Ahead
The Bank of Japan has key decisions to make tomorrow. In fact, this meeting is seen as more important than the FED meeting by the market since the range of policy options that could be undertaken by the BOJ is…
Market Volatility View
Market volatility has gone up over the last few days. In fact it was under 12 during the past 5 days and recently jumped to over 18. Currently, it went down to the 16 range, loosing more than 6%. The…
FED Outlook 2016
Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data. The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September. Thus, nothing will occur in…
BOE Rate Decision
Rates in the UK were cut to lowest point ever over Brexit concerns. In short, the increased uncertainty over the move to leave the EU has impacted confidence and business investment. This has affected consumer spending, the real estate market,…
Bank of Japan – hold steady for now
New stimulus was announced but waiting to do possibly more at the next meeting in September. In short, they decided to assess their approach, so a cautious approach. The move today is also a recognition that policy might be at…
Turkish Failed Coup and Investment Environment
The failed coup was over before it really started. It looked like a desperate attempt to overthrow the current AKP government. Unlike coups of the past in Turkey, this one did not have the support of the electorate. Firstly, about…
FX Forecast Alert: GBP
Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning. Brexit is clearly more likely to happen. Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…
High Chance UK will Leave EU
The vote is going to be close. During the last few days, the markets and the polls showed the Stay Campaign with a slight edge. Today, I closed out most of my 'risk-on' positions with a profit. It was just…
