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Turkish Election Forecast

Turkish Election 2023: Our Forecast

The Turkish election of 2023 is a pivotal event in the country’s history. With the presidential and parliamentary elections taking place simultaneously, the electorate is set to head to the polls on May 14, 2023, to determine the future of Turkey. In this article, we will explore the key issues, candidates, electoral rules, and potential outcomes of the election.

The Turkish election of 2023 is scheduled to take place on May 14, 2023. The election will comprise both the presidential and parliamentary elections. It is important how this plays out since the opposition has banded together to form a six party block called the National Alliance to defeat the AKP party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  If Kemal Kilicdaroglu the leader of the main opposition party in Turkey – the CHP and chosen presidential candidat to represent the National Alliance, wins the presidency they will also need to win the parliamentary elections.

The parliamentary elections are vital since the National Alliance has promised to change the constitution to dilute the powers of the president and revert back to the previous system where the parliment had more power.   Thus, if the National Alliance led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu wins the presidency but fails to win the parliment, the AKP could play a spoiler role and thart attempts to change and also make it difficult for the National Alliance to run the country.  In fact, the National Alliance consists of six parties that have differenct ideological backgrounds.

A big question is how will this fragile coalition govern if it does win the election. Numerous reports have stated that the AKP will not give up power if it looses, but I believe the view that they will give up power without violence for several reasons. First, a bet that the National Alliance will splinter due to ideological reasons.  Second, the dire economic situation in Turkey if not resolved could shift some of the blame to the National Alliance, thus paving the way for a comeback by the AKP in the future.

What makes this election so pivotal?

The Turkish election of 2023 is a pivotal event for Turkey because it will affect the country’s future political direction. The results of the election could usher in a new era of stability or result in further political upheaval. Additionally, the elections come at a time when Turkey is facing a number of significant challenges, including economic and political issues.

What are the issues at stake in this election?

There are several key issues at stake in the Turkish election of 2023. One of the most important is the state of Turkey’s foreign policy.  If the National Alliance wins, expect a shift closer to the West and a less confrontational approach.  Our perspective is that AKP will also be less confrontational since this foreign policy stance was designed to shore up support before the election by courting the nationalist vote.  Thus, a less confrontational approach and shift to the West is expected no matter who wins but we agree that the National Alliance will move closer to the West – Europe and US.

Our Forecast:

Several factors are likely to say the results in favor of National Alliance led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu.  The recent earthquake will result less support for the AKP in the southwest part of the country.  This was formorly a stronghold.  The Kurdish vote, representing about   15-20% of the population of Turkey is not homogenous.  A large percentage of this vote are conservatives thus the AKP still has support but since the AKP party moved from the center more towards the right, an increasing percentage are likely to vote for the National Alliance.  Additionally, the National Alliance has done a very effective job of reaching out to young voters and has also courted women voters.  Finally, the recent pullout of the race of an offshoot party from the CHP led by M. Ince will boost the chances that the National Alliance wins.

Normally, the economy is the main factor and the party in power would loose substantial support.  In this case it is the most important factor in the Turkish Election, however many voters are still under the belief that the current AKP party is better positioned to manage the country out the economic mess.  In other words, some voters have doubts that the National Alliance will hold togther and doubts linger on how effective they will be if they win.

Opinion polls and experts are divided on the likely outcome of the Turkish election of 2023. It is very close with the National Alliance showing a small lead.

Our forcast is for Kemal Kilicdaroglu and the National Alliance to win the Presidency with the Parliment too close to call.

For Macro Newsletter Pro clients, we take a closer look at the TUR (MSCI Turkey ETF) as a possible option play on the election outcome.

Conclusion

The Turkish election of 2023 is a pivotal event that has the potential to shape the future of Turkey. With a range of issues at stake, including the state of the country’s foreign policy and the recent earthquake, the election is sure to be closely watched both in Turkey and around the world. As the electorate head to the polls on May 14, 2023, the outcome of the election remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the Turkish election of 2023 will have far-reaching consequences for the country and its people.