The tensions between Turkey and the Netherlands has heated up with threats of sanctions. From an investment point of view, it is politically motivated on both sides due to the elections in the Netherlands and the Turkish Referendum. The current…
Investor sentiment reached new highs after the Trump speech last week. Instead of putting new money into the market at this stage, we would suggest investors to tread carefully. Over the last couple of months, we have been increasing our…
The FED meeting today is important for setting up future rate moves. I would pay less attention to the data and more attention to the tone of the language. Regarding the risk of a hike today, it is close to…
Having approached the NAFTA issue with very hardball tactics and striking at the sensibilities of the Mexicans with the implementation of the wall along the Mexican border, has increased tensions. The implications of this approach with Mexico are not positive…
The new Trump administration has met with auto executives recently. He has threatened a 35% tax on imports from Mexico. Yesterday, without notifying the Mexican delegation, Trump and his press secretary made the decision to build the wall. And by…
The coming trade friction and quite possibly geopolitical tensions between the US and China should be taken seriously by market players. In our opinion, this risk has increased. As a prelude for what to expect, look no further than what…
Our forecast for future rate hikes by the FED in 2017 depend on inflationary pressures arising from the new economic policies of Trump. In general, inflation seems to be picking up, or we should say inflationary expectations are picking up…
The recent phone call to from the president of Taiwan to Trump certainly inflated the Chinese and increased uncertainty in Asia. In contrast to a Clinton victory, China is going to have a much more difficult time assessing what a…
The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk. The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier. It is in fact a vote for more centralization. Business activity should be easier since local authorities…
We have taken a speculative position on the OPEC meeting in November. There are arguments for both a deal and also a no-deal scenario. I will briefly discuss both scenarios, then provide what our view is and why. First, the…
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