FED Rate and Balance Sheet Forecast
Our forecast has been for the FED to raise rates in June. Although the economic data has been weaker as of late, we are sticking by our forecast. This is in-line with our overall view for 2017 that the FED…
March Rate Hike and Fed Policy
The market now sees 3 rate hikes instead of 2 for for 2017. We have had this position for some time in our previous forecasts. Regarding the pace of rate hikes, it depends on economic growth and inflation. Surveys currently…
Turkish Referendum and Dutch Spat
The tensions between Turkey and the Netherlands has heated up with threats of sanctions. From an investment point of view, it is politically motivated on both sides due to the elections in the Netherlands and the Turkish Referendum. The current…
Global Macro Watch™ – Market Risks
Investor sentiment reached new highs after the Trump speech last week. Instead of putting new money into the market at this stage, we would suggest investors to tread carefully. Over the last couple of months, we have been increasing our…
FED Meeting – What to look for?
The FED meeting today is important for setting up future rate moves. I would pay less attention to the data and more attention to the tone of the language. Regarding the risk of a hike today, it is close to…
Mexican Geo-Political Risk
Having approached the NAFTA issue with very hardball tactics and striking at the sensibilities of the Mexicans with the implementation of the wall along the Mexican border, has increased tensions. The implications of this approach with Mexico are not positive…
NAFTA Negotiation Forecast
The new Trump administration has met with auto executives recently. He has threatened a 35% tax on imports from Mexico. Yesterday, without notifying the Mexican delegation, Trump and his press secretary made the decision to build the wall. And by…
Increasing Risk – US and China
The coming trade friction and quite possibly geopolitical tensions between the US and China should be taken seriously by market players. In our opinion, this risk has increased. As a prelude for what to expect, look no further than what…
FED Rate Forecast for 2017
Our forecast for future rate hikes by the FED in 2017 depend on inflationary pressures arising from the new economic policies of Trump. In general, inflation seems to be picking up, or we should say inflationary expectations are picking up…
Chinese – US Policy Uncertainty
The recent phone call to from the president of Taiwan to Trump certainly inflated the Chinese and increased uncertainty in Asia. In contrast to a Clinton victory, China is going to have a much more difficult time assessing what a…
