There are strong reasons to think so. The recent deal between Turkey and the EU is related towards finding a solution for Syria. The fight for Aleppo could result in a large wave of migrants (500,000 plus) flowing to Turkey…
Just as Turkey seemed to be sliding into escalating violence and chaos, an opportunity arose and President Erdogan agreed to 3 Billion Euro aid package with the EU. The impetus of the deal was the increasing migration mess in Europe…
The labour market is very tight with unemployment at the medium term trend of 5.5%, this is down from over 8% a few years ago. Thus, the job market is back to normal and probably tightening. This would be a…
Germany is experiencing a slowdown in exports thanks to weakness in emerging markets, especially China which accounts for 6.5% of German exports. The slowdown in China could be more than is currently in the news and that will affect German…
The bad news is that growth is slowing for domestic and external reasons. The good news (if you can call it that) is that Japan is not the only large economy caught in a deflationary spiral. Japan grew at 4.5%…
This deal is really about implementing the Asian ‘pivot’ since China is not included purposely. There are 12 countries that represent 40% of world GDP, with the US and Japan being the key ones. All three NAFTA countries (US, Canada…
The economy has declined by 2.5 to 3 % of GDP according to most estimates. Next year will also see a decline of over 1% of GDP. The slowdown in China has impacted Brazil and this will continue into the…
The expected September rate hike did not happen as we predicted in August. This was due mostly to turmoil in the financial markets as a result of the Chinese slowdown. In addition, the inflation numbers were weak. Going forward, we…
India and US Pivot against China The recent election of Mr. Modi in India has sped up strategic relations with the US. In short, India sees benefits in the form of economic cooperation and geopolitical considerations. The geopolitics is not…
South China Sea Tensions Rise In the South China Sea, the geopolitical game is becoming more dangerous. Tensions are higher since China has been constructing more artificial islands around the Spratly chain, which is oil rich and claimed by numerous…
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