Oil Forecast An oil price recovery is the key to a commodity rebound since oil is priced in dollars and it is an input into commodity production. The continuation of economic stimulus programs in the EU, Japan and China bodes…
Changes are at hand regarding US policy in the Middle East. In this article, I will argue the US pullback is misguided due to a narrow definition of risks and benefits. While it is true that US interests have been…
Our last post highlighted our belief in a Syrian Deal in the works and our main reasons behind this thesis. In this post, we look at what shape a Syrian political solution will take politically and why. The focus will…
Now that Putin has achieved his goals in Syria, expect a Syrian Deal to be put on the fast track. Putin’s first goal was popularity back home and it looks like he was very successful here. Secondly, he was able…
The December rate hike is now clearly going to happen. The Fed has been spelling this out in its messages to the market. Expectations are for a 0.25 to 0.5 hike. In all likelihood it will be 0.25. The big…
The monetary policy committee in South Africa raised rates by 0.25% last week amid fears of the coming US Fed rate rise in December. This has happened even though growth is expected to be about 1.5% next year and with…
Russian geopolitics in the Mediterranean are wider than Syria. In our previous article, Syrian End Game, we discussed the reasons behind the recent Russian intervention in Syria. Essentially, the Russians need to protect their only naval base in the Mediterranean…
Anti-austerity forces in Portugal and Spain represent a threat to Germany and European unity. Yesterday, the leftist alliance defeated legislation in parliament that resulted in the end of Prime Minister Coelho after years increased taxes and spending cuts. On the…
News of Oil stored on ships (floating storage) puts more downward pressure on oil prices in the short-term. In addition, onshore oil storage are at all times highs, Chinese demand has fallen plus the Saudi decision to keep pumping oil…
The slowdown in China combined with a stronger dollar have reduced the price of copper to its lowest rate in 6 years. Prices for the metal have declined over 20% for the year. Miners have been paring back investments to…
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