Iranian Regime Weakened: Can it survive? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has struggled to maintain its deterrent reputation amid ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf. Despite continuing attacks on Gulf infrastructure and some resilience, the IRGC has suffered operational…
Iran War and Implications on Oil Production and Prices The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and LNG supply passes. Major Middle Eastern…
Chinese Response on Iran Strikes Seen as Weak The U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei have upended global geopolitics and complicated an upcoming Trump–Xi summit in Beijing. China's official response has been measured—strongly worded but restrained—reflecting…
Middle East Escalation: Strike on Iran A rapidly escalating confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran in early 2026 followed years of diplomatic friction, sanctions, proxy wars and domestic unrest in Iran. After months of high-level talks and intense…
Implications for Cuban Regime Survival The U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro (January 3, 2026), framed by the 2025 National Security Strategy’s “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, marks a strategic shift in U.S. policy in the hemisphere. Rather than…
Implications of Drug Kingpin Crackdown in Mexico The Mexican government’s killing of Nemesio “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), is a major political and security achievement for President Claudia Sheinbaum but also a high-risk move. While…
Iran Facing Capitulation or Confrontation The US has essentially given Iran two choices. The first, accept ending enrichment of uranium, get rid of long-range ballistic missle program, end support for regional Iranian proxy groups and treat Iranian citizens better. In…
Implications for US and EU Transatlantic Ties US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, urged closer US–Europe cooperation to build a “new Western century,” framing the relationship as a civilisational partnership. He criticized liberal policies—especially…
Geopolitics behind US-Taiwan Trade Deal The Trump administration and Taiwan signed a final reciprocal trade agreement keeping a 15% U.S. tariff on imports from Taiwan (effective average rate of about 12%) while Taiwan will eliminate or reduce many tariffs on…
Geopolitics of Takaichi's Japan Election Win Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a landslide lower-house victory, driven in part by nationalist rhetoric and tough talk on China and Taiwan from leader Sanae Takaichi. The result gives the LDP and…
Get the Free
Macro Newsletter!
Macro Insights
