China has Underestimated Europe's Pushback China underestimates Europe’s willingness and ability to push back. Chinese commentators often caricature Europe as weak and US-led, overlooking growing European concerns about economic dependence, security (notably over Ukraine), and unfair trade/practice issues. Recent incidents—chipmaker…
Oil Market Dynamics of a Weaker OPEC The UAE announced it will leave OPEC on May 1 amid a global energy crisis driven by the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Experts say the move reflects long‑running…
USMCA Overview and Key Issues at Stake The 2026 joint review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) has shifted from a routine assessment into a high‑stakes negotiation driven by U.S. protectionist measures under the Trump administration, which has used tariffs…
Risks and Opportunities for China and Russia The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has created strategic opportunities for Russia and China to weaken U.S. influence, learn from U.S. military operations, and deepen ties with Iran. Moscow and Beijing benefit if the…
Possible US-Iran Deal but Complications Exist Recent high-level talks between the United States and Iran show a fragile opening for peace, but deep mistrust, recent violence, and uncompromising demands have blocked a deal. Sustaining the current cease-fire, building confidence measures,…
Trump Pushes Israel on Lebanese Ceasefire to Wrap up US-Iran Deal Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire pushed by U.S. President Donald Trump, taking effect at midnight. The truce is intended to create space for renewed mediation and…
Posititive Market Reaction to US-Iran Ceasefire Global stock markets rallied strongly after signs of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, despite lingering questions about its durability. Major indexes in the US, Europe and Asia posted multi-percent gains. President…
Ceasefire: Nuclear Enrichment and Strait of Hormuz The two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran is fragile and leaves many core disputes unresolved. Key issues—Iran’s nuclear program, Lebanon/Hezbollah, demands for compensation, the risk of terrorism and proxy attacks,…
Trump to Rethink NATO Commitment President Trump publicly questioned whether the United States should “rethink” its NATO commitment after European allies refused to join a U.S.-led military push against Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. His frustration stems from…
Montary Policy Expectations of US FED Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed’s response to the US‑Israel–Iran War will depend on how the conflict affects Americans’ inflation expectations. He suggested the Fed may look through the current energy-driven supply…
Get the Free
Macro Newsletter!
Macro Insights
