Mixed signals keep on coming from the FED regarding a rate hike. More economists and market participants are now convinced of a December rate hike. Chances of a hike did go up thanks to the recent strong jobs report. However,…
The labour market is very tight with unemployment at the medium term trend of 5.5%, this is down from over 8% a few years ago. Thus, the job market is back to normal and probably tightening. This would be a…
Germany is experiencing a slowdown in exports thanks to weakness in emerging markets, especially China which accounts for 6.5% of German exports. The slowdown in China could be more than is currently in the news and that will affect German…
The bad news is that growth is slowing for domestic and external reasons. The good news (if you can call it that) is that Japan is not the only large economy caught in a deflationary spiral. Japan grew at 4.5%…
The economy has declined by 2.5 to 3 % of GDP according to most estimates. Next year will also see a decline of over 1% of GDP. The slowdown in China has impacted Brazil and this will continue into the…
The expected September rate hike did not happen as we predicted in August. This was due mostly to turmoil in the financial markets as a result of the Chinese slowdown. In addition, the inflation numbers were weak. Going forward, we…
Panic sets in in China: the following steps were taken: Interest rates were lowered by 25 bps to 4.60 from 4.85. Reserve Requirement Ratio (for big banks) lowered by 50 bps to 18.0 from 18.50. 22 Billion was pumped into…
For the FED to raise rates in September, growth in the US economy would need to clearly show up in the economic data. Inflation numbers were not really there given the strong US Dollar (imports are cheaper) and low oil…
Today, macro factors, both on the political and economic fronts, will play a decisive role on the future direction of asset prices. From the political wrangling over the US Debt ceiling to timing and the speed of weaning the US…
Expect lots of volatility as politics once again predominates. With both sides drawing lines in the sand and refusing to budge a federal shutdown seems increasing likely. The U.S. senate voted along party lines to extend financing till November 15th,…
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