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Very tightly cropped image of a dollar bill with selected focus on the Federal Reserve official symbol

December Rate Hike – then what?

The December rate hike is now clearly going to happen.  The Fed has been spelling this out in its messages to the market.  Expectations are for a 0.25 to 0.5 hike.  In all likelihood it will be 0.25. The big…

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South African Reserve Bank Hundred Rand Note

South Africa – A sign of things to come?

The monetary policy committee in South Africa raised rates by 0.25% last week amid fears of the coming US Fed rate rise in December.  This has happened even though growth is expected to be about 1.5% next year and with…

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Compass on hundred dollar background

December FED Hike – what now?

Mixed signals keep on coming from the FED regarding a rate hike.  More economists and market participants are now convinced of a December rate hike.  Chances of a hike did go up thanks to the recent strong jobs report.  However,…

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Bank of England Note with Plastic House Models

UK BOE keeps rates on hold – Future?

The labour market is very tight with unemployment at the medium term trend of 5.5%, this is down from over 8% a few years ago.  Thus, the job market is back to normal and probably tightening.  This would be a…

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Euro Coin with Technical Analysis Background

ECB – Weak Data and German Slowdown

Germany is experiencing a slowdown in exports thanks to weakness in emerging markets, especially China which accounts for 6.5% of German exports.  The slowdown in China could be more than is currently in the news and that will affect German…

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Bank of Japan Yen Notes

Japan – BOJ Stimulus is it Yes or No?

The bad news is that growth is slowing for domestic and external reasons.  The good news (if you can call it that) is that Japan is not the only large economy caught in a deflationary spiral. Japan grew at 4.5%…

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United States Federal Reserve Emblem on Note

FED – Diminished Chance of 2015 Rate Hike

The expected September rate hike did not happen as we predicted in August. This was due mostly to turmoil in the financial markets as a result of the Chinese slowdown. In addition, the inflation numbers were weak. Going forward, we…

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Map of China

Chinese Turmoil

Panic sets in in China: the following steps were taken: Interest rates were lowered by 25 bps to 4.60 from 4.85. Reserve Requirement Ratio (for big banks) lowered by 50 bps to 18.0 from 18.50. 22 Billion was pumped into…

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United States Federal Reserve Emblem on Note

FED Rate Rise – What Now?

For the FED to raise rates in September, growth in the US economy would need to clearly show up in the economic data. Inflation numbers were not really there given the strong US Dollar (imports are cheaper) and low oil…

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