US and Iran: Tentative Deal to Extend Ceasefire

Deal to Open Strait of Hormuz is Close

The U.S. and Iran are close to a preliminary agreement that could extend the cease-fire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and set up later talks on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. However, the deal is still uncertain with military exchanges between the two sides show the situation remains fragile.

A draft memorandum of understanding may create a temporary framework for peace and phased economic relief. The agreement would likely reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing global energy disruptions, though reopening could still take weeks. Major issues like Iran’s nuclear program, uranium stockpiles, and missile limits are being deferred to later negotiations. Finally, the talks are complicated by ongoing strikes, including U.S.-Iranian military exchanges and Israel’s widening offensive in Lebanon.

The 60-day ceasefire deal with Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the agreement still needs Donald Trump’s approval. Talks are ongoing amid conflicting public signals, continued military tensions, and sharp market sensitivity.

The US and Iranian negotiators have reportedly reached a memorandum of understanding, but Trump has not signed off yet. Importantly, this proposed terms include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, removing mines, and suspending ship fees for 60 days.

Iran would begin nuclear talks, including possible dilution or surrender of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, in exchange for phased sanctions relief.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump has “red lines,” including no Iranian nuclear weapon and free navigation in the seas. Oil markets reacted only slightly, with Brent crude and US oil prices largely flat.

Trump’s Push on the Abraham Accords

An article in the New York Times reports that President Trump suggested that a deal to end the war with Iran could require more countries to recognize Israel and join the Abraham Accords. Regional analysts and diplomats called the idea unrealistic, noting that many of the countries mentioned either already recognize Israel or have strong reasons not to do so. Key Points:

• Trump tied a possible Iran peace deal to expanding the Abraham Accords, including countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, and even Iran.
• Analysts said the proposal ignores major political realities, especially the Gaza war and the lack of support for Israel in much of the region.
• Saudi Arabia continues to insist on progress toward a Palestinian state before normalizing ties with Israel.
• Pakistan also rejected the idea, saying it conflicts with its core positions.
• Overall, the reaction across the Middle East was skepticism, confusion, and near-total lack of enthusiasm.

History and Geopolitics of the Abraham Accords

The Biden administration was actively working to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords. Unprecedented summits were held, including the Negev (Debo Ker) meeting with foreign ministers of Bahrain, the UAE, and Morocco. Iran, recognizing the threat this normalization posed, worked through its proxies, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Hashd Al Shaabi, the Houthis, and Hamas, to derail the process. Lerman distinguished Hamas as a partner of Iran rather than a surrogate, unlike Islamic Jihad which worked directly for Iran.

Beyond ideological opposition to Zionism, Iran seeks to demonstrate that Shia Islam will accomplish what Sunni regimes failed to do: maintain hostility toward Israel. As Sunni states (Egypt in 1979, Jordan in 1994, and Gulf states) normalized relations with Israel, Iran positioned itself as the true standard-bearer of Muslim opposition to Israel. This is seen as a core driver of both Khomeini’s and the IRGC’s policy.

Hamas launched the attack on October 7th 2023, partly out of fear that a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal would permanently end the Palestinian project as Hamas envisions it. In addition, Hamas saw Israeli domestic tensions over judicial reform as a sign of internal weakness. The attack was also timed to relieve pressure on Hamas from Israeli operations in Judea and Samaria, triggering a chain reaction involving Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis.

Thus, the push by Trump on the Abraham Accords can be seen as a geopolitical move against Iranian influence in the Middle East.