Israeli Strike on Qatar Threatens Israeli-Arab Normalization Israeli strike on Qatar would mark a dangerous new phase in a long-running cycle of conflict and shaky diplomacy across the Middle East. It risks undermining fragile normalisation gains, empowering hardliners and proxies,…
Oil Market and the Deflation of the Geopolitical Risk Premium This Goldman Sachs prediction was a worst case scanario. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a strategic mistake by Iran. For three reasons, it needs the money…
A Weakened Iran Strategically Accepts a Ceasefire President Trump thanked Iran for giving "early notice" of its missile attack on Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, calling the Iranian retaliation "very weak" and expressing a desire to avoid war with Iran…
Increased Probability of US Strike on Iranian Fordow Nuclear Site President Trump declared "total control of skies" over Iran and called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" amid growing signs the U.S. might join Israel's bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear facilities. The…
Is Israel Seeking to Destroy Iranian Regime? Israel's recent military actions against Iran's nuclear program, marking a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Following nearly 20 months of conflict after October 7, 2023, Israel has moved from defensive operations against…
Trump Secures Deals in New Middle East Policy The U.S. is enhancing Saudi Arabia's international status as part of a strategy to rebalance power in the Middle East, aiming for Riyadh to take a greater regional and global role. This…
Iran Policy Dilema: Maximum Pressure or Attack Nuclear Sites Donald Trump plans to reinstate the "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, focusing on economic sanctions to limit Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Though this strategy strained Iran's economy, it did…
A Deal before Trump Takes Power: Will it Hold? A provisional cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas has been announced, set to last six weeks and focusing on the release of hostages and humanitarian aid. The initial phase includes specific…
HTS will need to Pursue a Pragmatic Approach in Syria The text discusses the evolving political landscape in Syria following the actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. HTS has attempted to rebrand itself as…
Fall of Assad Regime Leaves Syria with Power Vaccum The imminent capture of Damascus by rebel forces signals the potential fall of the Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad, leading to a contested political process among various rebel factions. The…
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