HTS will need to Pursue a Pragmatic Approach in Syria The text discusses the evolving political landscape in Syria following the actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. HTS has attempted to rebrand itself as…
Fall of Assad Regime Leaves Syria with Power Vaccum The imminent capture of Damascus by rebel forces signals the potential fall of the Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad, leading to a contested political process among various rebel factions. The…
Oil Price Risk and Possible Scenarios of Middle East Escalation In this article, we look at the current tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, and their potential impact on global oil markets. Following missile strikes from…
How will Israel Respond? Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated significantly following a missile attack by Iran on Israel, which resulted in damage to a school and reports of casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of severe consequences for…
International Efforts for 21-Day Cease Fire Fail Prior to the Israeli attack that killed the Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah, the US and France were leading efforts to reduce tensions with a proposed 21-day ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant…
Gaza Plan and Broader Considerations The Biden administration is nearing a cease-fire deal aimed at halting major fighting in Gaza, facilitating the release of Israeli hostages, and increasing humanitarian aid for Palestinians. While a framework has been agreed upon, officials…
Foreign Policy Likely the Same, Domestic Uncertainty While Raisi served as president, his power was limited by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic. However, Raisi's passing has created a void in power…
Israel and Iran Tensions being Played Down This should be seen as a warning to show that Israel can strike back at a time and place at its choosing. At the same time the Iranians have blamed drones for the…
US and UK Consider Response to Houthi Attack The recent attack launched from Yemen by the Houthi group has once again brought the spotlight on the ongoing conflict in the region and its implications for global security. This article aims…
What are the prospects for reduced geopolitical risk in 2024? The key drivers of geopolitical risk are the Russian-Ukrainian War, Israeli-Hamas Conflict and friction between the US and China. We see a mixed picture on the drivers of geopolitical risk…
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