Our view regarding the recent escalation of trade tensions is that we are just at the start of the process and that the recent market rally yesterday is premature. Chinese investment of high-tech US companies has been stymied and regulated…
North Korea dramatically escalated tensions by testing a very powerful bomb today. Experts are skeptical that it was a hydrogen bomb. However, it is at least 10x more powerful than anything North Korea had up to this point. The test…
The tensions between Turkey and the Netherlands has heated up with threats of sanctions. From an investment point of view, it is politically motivated on both sides due to the elections in the Netherlands and the Turkish Referendum. The current…
Having approached the NAFTA issue with very hardball tactics and striking at the sensibilities of the Mexicans with the implementation of the wall along the Mexican border, has increased tensions. The implications of this approach with Mexico are not positive…
The coming trade friction and quite possibly geopolitical tensions between the US and China should be taken seriously by market players. In our opinion, this risk has increased. As a prelude for what to expect, look no further than what…
The recent phone call to from the president of Taiwan to Trump certainly inflated the Chinese and increased uncertainty in Asia. In contrast to a Clinton victory, China is going to have a much more difficult time assessing what a…
The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk. The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier. It is in fact a vote for more centralization. Business activity should be easier since local authorities…
The failed coup was over before it really started. It looked like a desperate attempt to overthrow the current AKP government. Unlike coups of the past in Turkey, this one did not have the support of the electorate. Firstly, about…
Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning. Brexit is clearly more likely to happen. Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…
The Doha Meeting will impact oil prices for 2016. Many analyst are confused at what will transpire at this meeting. There seems to be a weak view building that the meeting will produce some type of agreement but lots…
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