The coming trade friction and quite possibly geopolitical tensions between the US and China should be taken seriously by market players. In our opinion, this risk has increased. As a prelude for what to expect, look no further than what…
The recent phone call to from the president of Taiwan to Trump certainly inflated the Chinese and increased uncertainty in Asia. In contrast to a Clinton victory, China is going to have a much more difficult time assessing what a…
The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk. The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier. It is in fact a vote for more centralization. Business activity should be easier since local authorities…
The failed coup was over before it really started. It looked like a desperate attempt to overthrow the current AKP government. Unlike coups of the past in Turkey, this one did not have the support of the electorate. Firstly, about…
Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning. Brexit is clearly more likely to happen. Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…
The Doha Meeting will impact oil prices for 2016. Many analyst are confused at what will transpire at this meeting. There seems to be a weak view building that the meeting will produce some type of agreement but lots…
Changes are at hand regarding US policy in the Middle East. In this article, I will argue the US pullback is misguided due to a narrow definition of risks and benefits. While it is true that US interests have been…
Our last post highlighted our belief in a Syrian Deal in the works and our main reasons behind this thesis. In this post, we look at what shape a Syrian political solution will take politically and why. The focus will…
Now that Putin has achieved his goals in Syria, expect a Syrian Deal to be put on the fast track. Putin’s first goal was popularity back home and it looks like he was very successful here. Secondly, he was able…
Russian geopolitics in the Mediterranean are wider than Syria. In our previous article, Syrian End Game, we discussed the reasons behind the recent Russian intervention in Syria. Essentially, the Russians need to protect their only naval base in the Mediterranean…
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